Look beyond ordinary analysis
The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
Commercial Traders – Hedgers
Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday. The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
My Bias: Bullish
EURUSD reached and bounced off the major support during thin trading over the Christmas period. First two weeks of January will show if we have a room for more upside.
Speculators added 6K longs and reduced shorts by 3K. This is 4th consecutive week when speculators reduce their shorts and a first significant week with them adding longs
They are 69K net short, down from 78K last week and 87K two weeks ago.
Open interest increased by 6K
This week’s data confirm a possible reversal in EUR Futures. Short positions came off the highs. I mentioned in the last analysis, I would like to see net short below 60K to consider reversal. This week, we are not far off (69K). Given new long positions added, the reversal is in EURUSD is likely
My Bias: Bullish
Speculators have been adding longs for two consecutive weeks, at the same time they reduced their shorts significantly over the last five weeks. Long bias is confirmed but the price is still forming bullish reversal on daily charts.
This week speculators added 6K new longs and 3.6K shorts.
They are 57K net short, down from 59K last week and 72K two weeks ago.
Open interest grew by 7K.
Wait for the reversal pattern and buy dips.
My Bias: Bullish reversing to the downside
Speculators have been reducing their long exposure for many weeks. As of this week, they became net short holders of AUD Futures. The price of Australian Dollar is likely to collapse further or range trade for few weeks
Speculators added 5.7K new longs, this is after 6 weeks of covering longs. At the same time they added 11K new shorts.
As of this week, Speculators are NET SHORT in Australian Dollar Futures
Strategy: Sell rallies
My Bias: Bearish
Speculators continue to be aggressively bearish in JPY futures. USDJPY has been printing higher prices in the last few weeks. The pair is due a correction to the downside but the trend is strongly to the upside
Speculators reduced their longs by a significant 23K positions and at the same time they reduced shorts by 12K. This is another significant week with speculators being bearish in JPY among speculators
Open interest dropped by 1K.
Corrections expected. Buy dips
This week speculators added astonishing 11K longs and 4K shorts
They are only 1K net short down from 11K last week and 21K two weeks ago
Open interest fell by 13K.
Mixed. If the speculators turn net bullish, USDCAD might decline in the next few weeks.
Sell NZDUSD on rallies
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