Look beyond ordinary analysis
The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
Commercial Traders – Hedgers
Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday. The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
My Bias: Bullish
EURUSD formed triple bottom at 1.0380 area and advanced higher. The pair traded as high as 1.0610 just before Friday’s NFP. The market closed at 1.0530 but the pair looks like there is a longer term bullish reversal forming. If the price stays above the current level next week, more upside is likely.
Speculators added 6.5K new longs and 7K new shorts. This is 2nd week in the row when speculators are adding fresh longs by also for the first time in 5 weeks they added new shorts. Net positions remain unchanged from the previous week. Open interest increased by 10K.
Reversal pattern formed on daily charts. Buy longs on pullbacks
My Bias: Bullish
Similarly to EURUSD, Cable formed a double bottom at 1.2200 area and advanced higher. The pair traded off the highs after Friday’s NFP. My bias is to the upside if the price remains above 1.2220 next week and the net speculative positions above 33 weeks moving average.
This week speculators added 5.5K new longs (3rd consecutive week) and13K new shorts. Net positions are at 64K, up from 57K prior week. They are slightly more bearish this week but the figure remains above 33 weeks moving average.
Wait for the reversal pattern on daily charts and buy dips.
My Bias: Bearish
AUDUSD has formed a double bottom at around 0.7170 area and printed higher high. As C.O.T suggests bearish picture, the price action and the momentum suggest there is a long potential in the short term. My bias remains to the downside but I’m happy to take long positions at around 0.7250 (local support)
Speculators added 4K new longs (for the second week in the row. This is after they have been dumping longs for 6 weeks prior to that) and they added 5.6K new shorts. They are 3.2K net short, down from 1.5K net short two weeks ago, and net long three weeks ago,.
Strategy: Sell rallies
My Bias: Bullish
Speculators continue to be aggressively bearish in JPY futures. USDJPY has been printing higher prices in the last few weeks. The pair made a lower low for the first time during this aggressive rally. As this market is due a correction, look out for short opportunities in the coming weeks.
Speculators covered 2.6K longs and 2.8K shorts. Net short positions were unchanged and remained at -86K. Open interest was also unchanged. This would be a sign that the current rally might be running out of steam, at least in the short term.
Strategy: Corrections expected. Buy dips
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
USDCAD had a bad week. The pair declined from 1.36 to close the week at 1.3234. As USDCAD was mainly driven by a price of oil, I expect the current level as a buying opportunity. My bullish bias remains unchanged as long as speculators remain net bullish in CAD futures
Buy dips on bearish reversal patterns.
437 total views, 7 views today
438 total views, 8 views today