Daily-Elliott-Wave-Analysis-01-26-17- GOLD reaches lower target, EURUSD turn at hand?

EURUSD

Current wave 3 down – below parity.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: lower in wave 3 green
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: M3 Money Supply y/y, ECOFIN Meetings. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. 

Good evening all.

Todays trade brought acceleration to the downside, I have labelled the short term chart as a completed waves 1,2 and a drop in wave 3 green.
If this labelling is correct, then the decline should continue and break through support at 1.0587 before completing wave ‘iii’ brown.

The 4hr RSI broke through the centreline to the downside today, this bearish signal follows a protracted divergence between the rising price and the lower trending RSI.
This could well be the beginning of the end for EURUSD, given the larger wave count in play.
When waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ in brown are complete it will offer the best opportunity to enter on the short side in the anticipation of wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

GBPUSD

Wave 2 red, downtrend resumed.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Short term wave count: Downside from 1.2385 to 1.1900
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. 

Cable had a turn to the downside also today in what could be the end of the correction in wave 2 red.
I would like to see some downside acceleration from here which takes out previous support at the critical high of 1.2371.

Todays high at 1.2672 is now important as the first resistance in a possible developing down trend.
The 4hr technical setup shows the RSI turning down from the trendline again in a RSI double top.
MACD has also topped out, so the price has lost all upside momentum at this stage.
Any downside moves tomorrow will signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.

USDJPY

LONG

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Neutral
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count: wave [v] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. 

USDJPY has stayed on track today.
The rise off the recent low at 112.50 is in three waves so far, which leaves open the alternate wave count, shown circled in red.
That wave count views wave (b) green as complete, and the todays lower high as a developing wave ‘i,ii’ sequence.
If the price continues higher into the 115.60 target, I will discard the alternate labelling.

For tomorrow I want to see a further rally and for the price to stay above the 114.00 handle to avoid the alternate count.
A break of wave 2 red to the downside will signal the market has turned.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

Topping in wave (5)

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 20,500
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Advance GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. 
The DOW continued its winning streak today pushing to a high of 20133, The rally has cooled off this evening in a possible wave iv triangle.
So we can expect another rally in wave ‘v’ which will complete wave (i) grey.
Wave (ii) grey should arrive next week, and it could be a short affair given the bullishness that abounds the stock market these days.
That infamous phrase – “we have reached what seems to be a permanently high plateau”, comes to mind when listening to the media commentary over the last few days.

That phrase was uttered by Irving Fisher, a whole seven days before black Monday 28th October 1929.
Beware of bullishness at new all time highs, is all I’m saying!

GOLD

Current wave [B] – Long to 1550

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Short term wave count: Upside from 1120~, target 1500
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Advance GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. 

GOLD declined today, into my initial target for wave (ii) blue.
The price seems to have traced out a complete five wave structure in wave ‘c’ as of this evening.
Todays low at 1184 is now the initial support with 1170 the next major support level.
1170 is the previous fourth wave low at one lesser degree, which is a common target for a correction in an uptrend.

The small rally off the low looks encouraging, although more evidence is needed before calling the start of wave (iii) blue.
Lets see what tomorrow brings first

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