Daily-Elliott-Wave-Analysis-01-30-17- DOW and GOLD corrections complete.

EURUSD

Current wave 3 down – below parity.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: lower in wave 3 green
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, ECB President Draghi Speaks, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, German Unemployment Change, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Prelim Flash GDP q/q. USD: Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence.

Hi everyone, welcome back to a new trading week.

EURUSD continued its downside bias today, without the serious acceleration that I am expecting though.
I have labelled tonight’s chart with the most bearish interpretation, that is a sequence of 1,2 waves to the downside.

The high at wave ‘ii’, 1.0739 must not be broken for this count to remain valid.
Wave ‘iii’ brown should travel a significant distance, so this could be the build up to a large downside move.
A break of support at 1.0587 will likely confirm that move.

GBPUSD

Wave 2 red, downtrend resumed.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Short term wave count: Downside from 1.2385 to 1.1900
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: Net Lending to Individuals m/m. USD: Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence.

Cable dropped in an impulsive fashion today in a possible wave 3 green.
The action has the look of a third wave in that the downside momentum stepped up a gear.

I would like to see a break of that cluster of support levels between 1.2414 and 1.2371 to confirm the return to the larger down trend.
The 4hr RSI registered a sell signal today, and MACD is heading that way, so there is potential for things to get hot here soon.

USDJPY

LONG

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Neutral
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count: wave [v] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: BOJ Press Conference. USD: Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence.

USDJPY dropped impulsively also today, which is a plus for the wave count.
It took out the previous high of wave 1 red at 114.00, which rules out another short term bullish alternative.
The price is likely dropping in wave ‘iii’ brown as shown on the chart.

I am looking at the 110.00 region for wave (c) green to complete.
waves (a) and (c) would reach equality in points travelled at 1.0930.
A break of 113.03 will confirm the current wave count.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

Topping in wave (5)

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 20,500
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence.

The DOW has likely completed wave (ii) grey after todays decline.
The rally this evening again looks impulsive and could be the beginning of wave (iii) grey.

The decline looks to be in three waves off the all time high and rebounded off the support level at 19846.
A break of resistance at the previous wave (b) grey, will add weight to the bullish stance.
Wave (iii) grey is set to rally into the 20500 region
This level is where the length of wave (iii) grey will equal 1.618 * (i).

GOLD

Current wave [B] – Long to 1550

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Short term wave count: Upside from 1120~, target 1500
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence.

GOLD gave us more evidence today that wave (ii) is complete and the corrective phase is over for a while.

Wave (iii) blue should take prices into the 1350 region, and do most of the heavy lifting in this C wave rally.
Wave ‘i’ is complete at todays high and wave ‘ii’ is under way.
This should complete above support at 1180, but a move above todays high at 1199 will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is under way.

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