Daily-Elliott-Wave-Analysis-01-31-17- Gold begins the march higher, EURUSD alternate possibilities.

EURUSD

Current wave 3 down – below parity.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: lower in wave 3 green
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Manufacturing PMI, EU Economic Forecasts. SD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.

Evening all,

EURUSD confirmed the sneaking suspicion I had, and rallied again to post a new high today.
I have altered the labelling on the chart to reflect the continued bearish stnce on this pair.
The rally over the last few weeks, is most definitely corrective, the number of retracements in the structure will attest to that.
A bull market does not retrace in that manner, so the action still fits a counter trend rally in a C wave.

The alternate wave count is shown circled in red.
This views the current rally as a c wave within wave 2 blue, so either way I slice it, this rally is destined to be fully retraced in a return to trend.
A break of 1.0873 will trigger that alternate wav count.
I am still on the lookout for a turn down.

GBPUSD

Wave 2 red, downtrend resumed.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Short term wave count: Downside from 1.2385 to 1.1900
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: Manufacturing PMI. SD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.

Cable hit the cluster of support that I spoke about last night and rallied right off it.
The price rose like a rocket! up 190 points from the low, so the short term wave count is in jeopardy now.

I have again labelled the drop in a bearish fashion, simply because the larger wave count is calling for a serious decline to begin soon.
So I remain on the lookout for that decline to begin.

With regard to the larger wave count,
be aware that MACD is about to register a sell signal by crossing the centreline to the downside.
So the turn is coming here soon, even if the short term wave count is invalidated.
1.2672 is still the level to watch.

USDJPY

LONG

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Neutral
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count: wave [v] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. SD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.

USDJPY took another dive today possibly completing wave ‘iii’ brown at todays low.
the price broke through the previous low of wave (a) green,
this is the minimum target for wave (c) green to complete but I think there is another drop to come in the form of wave ‘v’ brown.
110.50 seems a likely target for wave ‘v’ to complete.

The sideways action this evening could be a fourth wave contracting triangle, I have shown a some trendlines to illustrate what this might look like.
We will see on that front.
For tomorrow watch for another dip under todays low, this will be a signal that wave ‘v’ has started.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

Topping in wave (5)

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 20,500
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.

The DOW broke support at 19846 today but has rallied strongly off the low at 19782, up 110 points as I write.
The bullish wave count is intact, but a rally up through 19994 will signal the larger wave (iii) has begun.

wave (ii) has retraced deeply into wave (i), which is pretty common, but I do not want to see a break of 19674.
That action will trigger my alternate wave count, which views the whole bull market as complete at last weeks high.
If that wave count is proved correct, then we are in for fun times ahead!
Until that happens, I will remain with the bullish wave count, and wave (iii) grey should begin its rally soon.

GOLD

Current wave [B] – Long to 1550

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Short term wave count: Upside from 1120~, target 1500
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.

The wave count in GOLD has worked like a charm over the last few months, and today was no different.
GOLD rallied strongly to a high at 1215.
Wave (iii) blue has gotten off to a great start so far.
I have labelled the short term chart with the most bullish interpretation.
This wave count shows the price rallying in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) which means a strong move is dead ahead.
The low of wave ‘ii’ at 1196 must hold for this bullish count to remain valid.
But over all the wave pattern is geared for a serious rally.