Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis-03-29-17 Five waves down in EURUSD, what does it mean?

EURUSD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Flash CPI y/y, German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks.

Evening everyone,
We have reached the hump of the week, and, so far so good for the wave counts.
The Dollar seems to be making a significant turn to the upside against the major crosses.
Gold has remained in a bullish structure,
And the DOW has almost certainly made the turn down in a new bearmarket.

EURUSD has now traced out a picture perfect five wave structure to the downside off the high at 1.0905.
I have labelled the five wave structure as possibly complete at todays low,
This completes wave ‘i’ pink.
Wave ‘ii’ pink should trace out a three wave structure off nearby lows.
Wave ‘ii’ pink will hit resistance at 1.0828, so watch for a corrective rally into that level.
Todays low was 1.0739, If this bearish wave count is correct,
the next time the price crosses below this level it will be in wave ‘iii’ pink.

GBPUSD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks.

Cable dropped again into todays low at 1.2375,
Wave (i) brown is either complete at that low or will take one more drop below 1.2375 to complete.
I have shown both possibilities on the short term chart.

Either way, wave (ii) brown will trace out a three wave rally into about 1.2500 to complete the bearish elliott wave signal off the high.
Wave (iii) down will begin from there and a break of support at 1.2333, will signal wave (iii) is underway.

USDJPY

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: Household Spending y/y. USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks.

The opposite situation is evident in USDJPY.
Off the recent lows there is a possible complete five wave structure to the upside.
It may be a type of rising wedge pattern, which completes wave (i) green.
Wave (ii) green is possibly under way and must stay above 110.10, the recent low.

The RSI crossed up above the center line today, in a positive momentum shift.
For now 110.10 is the critical low.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks.

The DOW was pretty flat today and has not given any more hints to us regarding which of the bearish wave counts is the correct one.
Resistance at 20775 has held so far,
but the decline today has not developed impulsively yet.
Both wave counts show, call for a renewed decline below 20409 in a developing bear market.
A drop below 20590 will add more fuel to the bearish case.

GOLD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks.

GOLD held above support today at 1240.71.
The declines off the recent high labelled wave ‘1’ pink is in three waves so far.
So todays low is now labelled wave ‘2’ pink
The price should rally again to trace out five internal waves in wave ‘v’ brown.
The whole impulsive structure in wave (i) blue will then be complete, and wave (ii) blue should retrace into support between 12440 and 1250.

All of this action is preparing the way for a significant rally in wave (iii) blue.
That rally will do most of the heavy lifting to take prices up towards the target zone of about 1500.
For tomorrow watch the support at 1240 again, it must continue to hold.