DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS 11-29-16 – Cable turns bullish again.

EURUSD
Current wave 2 – Long 1.0770 – 1.0900

30 min

eurusd-30min

4 Hours

eurusd-4h

Daily

eurusd-daily

My Bias: Long towards 1.0770 in wave 2
Sell Zone: 1.0770 – 1.0900
Buy Zone:
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: Upside from 1.0400. Upper target 1.0770
Long term wave count: downside from wave 2 blue
Important risk events: EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, German Unemployment Change, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, ECB President Draghi Speaks, German Buba President Weidmann Speaks. USD: OPEC Meetings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Powell Speaks
Hi all,
With todays rally in EURUSD came a stay of execution for the short term count.
Wave (c) green should break out into a 5 wave form. as shown on the chart.
This will complete the correction in wave 2 blue, from that point I will be looking for an opportunity to enter on the short side in wave 3 blue.
Wave (c) green should continue pushing up to about 1.0800 before completing.
Both RSI and MACD on the 4hr chart are looking supportive of a continuing rally.
Tomorrow is a big data day, so watch out for volatile swings which might upset the wave counts.

GBPUSD
Current wave (4) – Long to 1.3400

30 min

gbpusd-30min

4 Hours

gbpusd-4h

Daily

gbpusd-daily

My Bias: Long towards 1.3600
Sell Zone: 1.3300 – 1.3600
Buy Zone: 1.2080 – 1.2300
Wave Structure: Zigzag upside correction
Short term wave count: Upside from 1.1800 – 1.2080, Upper target 1.3400
Long term wave count: Rally in wave (4) blue, Upper target 1.3400
Important risk events: GBP: Bank Stress Test Results, BOE Financial Stability Report. USD: OPEC Meetings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Powell Speaks
The trade in cable today looks very bullish, the market rallied back into resistance at 1.2530 in a very impulsive looking form.
I have labelled todays rally as a complete 5 wave form to the upside,
We now need a small corrective decline which could possible complete overnight.
If the market breaks the confirmation line again to the upside it will signal that the larger rally in wave [iii] green is likely underway.
That confirmation line is at 1.2511, this is the level I am look at to enter long.
The minor correction in wave (ii) brown, will find support at todays minor wave ‘iv’ – 1.2456.
As always, with a big data day comes the possibility of big volatility, so caution must be exercised.

USDJPY
Current wave [B] – Short to 94.00

30 min

usdjpy-30-min

4 Hours

usdjpy-4-hrs

Daily

usdjpy-daily

My Bias: Short towards 96.00
Sell Zone: 110 – 108
Buy Zone: 91.00 – 95.00
Wave Structure: complex correction to the downside.
Short term wave count: Downside from 113.89, target 96.00
Long term wave count: Bottoming in wave C at 96.00, upside to above 126.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A, USD: OPEC Meetings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index m/m,
Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Powell Speaks.

Todays trade completes the price action I have been searching for.
With a lower high now in place, this complete the right shoulder of the standard head and shoulders pattern.
With todays rally looking very like a Zigzag correction in wave (ii) green, it is very likely that wave (iii) green will follow to the downside.
Today low at 111.60 is an attractive entry point on the short side, If the price breaks through this low, It will confirm wave (iii) down has begun.
Tomorrows data could bring with it some volitility so caution is advised.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
Current wave [5] – Long to 21000

30 min

4 Hours

dow-4-hrs

Daily

dow-daily

My Bias: Long towards 21,000
Sell Zone: > 20,000
Buy Zone: 17,100 – 18,100
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: OPEC Meetings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index m/m,Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Powell Speaks

I have been expecting the DOW to start turning over to the downside for over a week now.
The longer this reluctance to decline continues, the more I am focusing on the alternative wave count I introduced yesterday.
So far the market has just flat lined in a complex corrective structure which looks more like a fourth wave than anything else.
With that in mind I have labelled it accordingly.
This market looks set to rally to one last all time high over the next few days.

GOLD
Current wave [B] – Long to 1550

30 min

gold-30-min

4 Hours

gold-4-hrs

Daily

gold-daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Sell Zone: 1550 – 1600
Buy Zone: 1172 + –
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Short term wave count: Upside from 1172, target 1550
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: OPEC Meetings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Powell Speaks

I have labelled the short term wave count in the most bullish way possible.
I am expecting the market to begin a rally in a large degree wave C on the daily chart.
And on the short term chart, I am trying to catch a fallin knife as they say!
It is only a matter of time before The rally begins, so I am working on the assumption that any bullish action we see could be the beginning of the large degree rally.
The high at 1195, looks like a good entry point.
The wave count calls for a rally in wave ‘iii’ brown which should quickly carry the market far higher.
If the price falls below todays low at 1181, it will postpone the rally for a few more days.
Enda.