DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS 11-30-16 – Data throws off some wave counts, Gold action becomes clear

EURUSD
Current wave 2 – Long 1.0770 – 1.0900

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

eurusd-daily

My Bias: Long towards 1.0770 in wave 2
Sell Zone: 1.0770 – 1.0900
Buy Zone:
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: Upside from 1.0400. Upper target 1.0770
Long term wave count: downside from wave 2 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Manufacturing PMI. USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims.

Hi all.

EURUSD saw further declines today, the large data dump we got today seems to have thrown alot of the wave counts into a bit of a panic.

Wave (b) green seems to have traced out a flat an wave (c) should follow from here.
I expect 1.0750 to be the extent of wave (c), this will complete wave 2 blue and will offer the next trading opportunity.

GBPUSD
Current wave (4) – Long to 1.3400

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

gbpusd-daily

My Bias: Long towards 1.3600
Sell Zone: 1.3300 – 1.3600
Buy Zone: 1.2080 – 1.2300
Wave Structure: Zigzag upside correction
Short term wave count: Upside from 1.1800 – 1.2080, Upper target 1.3400
Long term wave count: Rally in wave (4) blue, Upper target 1.3400
Important risk events: GBP: Manufacturing PMI. USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims.

The action in cable today possibly completed wave (ii) brown. so we need to see a substantial rally in wave (iii) to confirm the larger wave count.

Price should not drop below wave (ii) brown in the bullish count.
The rally off the low today looks far too choppy so far be an impulse wave, so keep in mind the possibility that wave (ii) brown will extend slightly further.

USDJPY
Current wave [iv] – short to 108.00

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Short towards 96.00
Sell Zone:
Buy Zone:
Wave Structure: complex correction to the downside.
Short term wave count:
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims.

The market reaction today pushed USDJPY passed the upper invalidation line at 114.40.
That move invalidates the large bearish pattern I had been using of late.

I have show the new bullish replacement wave count, which means that the large wave [B] is in place and we are now rallying in wave [C].
I still think we will get an interim decline which could be pretty serious.
Lets see how this top form over the next few days to get a handle on the new situation.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
Current wave [5] – Long to 21000

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

dow-daily

My Bias: Long towards 21,000
Sell Zone: > 20,000
Buy Zone: 17,100 – 18,100
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims.

The DOW is now in the final throws of the current rally phase.

I had expected a further rally off that wave 4 flat yesterday.
We got that rally today which could be the last part of a much larger structure.

We are now at an overbought over bullish extreme.
These never end well.

GOLD
Current wave [B] – Long to 1550

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

gold-daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Sell Zone: 1550 – 1600
Buy Zone: 1172 + –
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Short term wave count: Upside from 1172, target 1550
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims.

The GOLD market took a hit today and the immediately bullish count was invalidated.

I have re labelled the current decline phase as an extended wave (v) blue.
This weeks action now best fits a contracting triangle in wave iv brown.

Make no mistake, this market is in a very large degree bottoming process, and will rally impressively when wave C red begins.
Patience is the key.
Enda.