Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis-12-27-16- Low volume trade, gold fake-out.

EURUSD

Current wave 3 down – below parity.

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events:  EUR: N/A. USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

Good evening all, Hope you had a great Christmas.
Markets were open today, but ony just!

There is not a whole lot to go on after a very light trading day, so I will keep it short and sweet.

The alternate wave count, circled in red on the short term chart, is now equally likely after a very norrow trading range today.

I have shown a trend channel which could hold the progress of a possibe wave (ii) green.
The target is 1.0575.
If this price action occurs, it will be time to jump in on the short side as this is a very bearish setup.

GBPUSD

Current wave (4) – Long to 1.3000

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1.2900
Wave Structure: Zigzag upside correction
Short term wave count: Upside from 1.1800 – 1.2080, Upper target 1.3400
Long term wave count: Rally in wave (4) blue, Upper target 1.3400
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

Cable did not cross Fridays low of 1.2226, this is a reprieve for the operating wave count.

The invalidation point for the bullish wave count is still at 1.2079, so This must hold.
The short term action off Fridays low could be an impulsive advance.
A break of the upper line of the trend channel would offer some weight to the bullish count.

USDJPY

Current wave [iv] – Short to 108.00

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short to 106.00
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count: wave [iii] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

USDJPY Is still poised for a rally into the 119.50 region, in a last gasp for this possible wave [iii] advance.
Wave [iv] downside targets still lie at the 110 – 108 level.
The trading range continued to tighten and the risk/reward is quite good for a long trade from here.
Todays high at 117.61 should be taken out soon in the bullish scenario.
Wave iv brown lies at 117.16, and should not be broken in this bullish scenario.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

Current wave [5] – Long to 21000

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 21,000
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

The DOW rallied to complete a possible three wave structure to the upside, denoted in a trend channel.
The market did come close to crossing the invalidation line at 19987, but the evenings trade backed off that level again.

The 20,000 level still has a magnetic draw to the market, so we will soon see if traders want that ultimate prize or not!
Both the operating wave count and the alternate count are calling for a sizeable decline from nearby levels.
The short term price action does not look very impulsive to the downside just yet.
A break of 19882 could change that.

GOLD

Current wave [B] – Long to 1550

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Short term wave count: Upside from 1120~, target 1550
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

Todays rally in gold looks more like wave c of 4, than the beginning of the new bull phase that I am expecting.
The market has all but given back todays gains and the decline may be the beginning of wave 5 blue.

The lower end target is still at about 1103, where wave 1 and 5 blue reach equality.
The minimum downside target is at 1122, the low of wave 3 blue.

The coming days should see the completion of this corrective phase in wave B red.
And the rally in wave C red will follow.

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