Daily Technical Analysis

Today's Risk Events

12:30am AUD Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Australian employment figures tend to be volatile and difficult to get right. This time the market expects 16.3K vs 13.5K prior, the unemployment rate is to stay unchanged at 5.75.
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference
No change expected to the Japanese monetary policy. Traders will look to the statement for directions and comments.
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary
Official bank rate is expected to stay unchanged at 0.25%. Look for directions in the summary. Any hawkish comments from the BOE, could have a positive effect on the price of GBP, given the Pound has been trading lower for few weeks.

EURUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: TURNING BULLISH
Intraday: DOUBLE BOTTOM AND HIGHER HIGH FORMED
Signals: LONG at 1.060

Notes: USD was substantially lower after today’s FOMC. As expected Yellen didn’t promise much in terms of the rest of the hikes and profits were taken off the table. EURUSD after slow start early in a day printed  a massive leg up and rallied over 100 pips. Weekly momentum indicates the bottom was firmly in place at 1.05 support and the price formed a full reversal pattern. My position was filled at 1.0610. I have now closed 50% of it at 110 pips profit and moved another half to break even (1.0615 ). I expect the price to retrace back down towards 1.0650 before the uptrend resumes. The ultimate target lies at 1.080 – a major resistance. For now, any pull back should be treated as an opportunity to add longs. Only a firm break below 1.0580 would suggest a shift in structure to the downside.

GBPUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BULLISH
Intraday: BULLISH
Signals: NO

Notes: Cable, similarly to other USD crosses moved up. The pair jumped around earlier on after lower than expected UK earning report but gained steam after FOMC. As indicated in my previous analysis, the bottom is now in place, supported by the oversold weekly momentum. Today the price printed higher high above 1.2250. Now we need a final element of the reversal pattern – a retracement back down to 1.200 area. Once this is in place, 1.2200 will serve as a perfect spot for bulls to engage. I see GBPUSD as a buy on retracements towards 1.2400 resistance.

USDJPY

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: FLAT
Intraday: FLAT
Signals: NO

Notes: With dowish Yellen USDJPY collapsed after few days of thin trading. The pair is about to close the day at around 113.30. The weekly momentum is approaching overbought zone but the reversal pattern its not 100% clear at this stage. Its hard to say if the pair will correct back up towards the resistance at 114.50 or will it stage a minor correction and print another leg down. The second scenario is most likely. Momentum strategy requirement is to wait for a re-test of the resistance or support after higher high or lower low. After such a volatile spike, it is unlikely. If you trade a strategy with other variables,fell free to enter shorts. This price must be treated as bearish from now with targets at at least 111.50.

AUDUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH 
Daily Momentum: MIXED
Intraday: MIXED
Signals: NO

Notes: Aussie, s other USD crosses rallied substantially today. The pair is about to closed the day just over 0.77 area. There is  a major resistance at 0.7750 and Aussie is about to touch it. Signals are mixed and its hard to see a clear price patter after a spike like that. I would assume, we will correct back down after reaching 0.7750 and range for a while. Weekly momentum is currently sitting in the middle of the zone, giving mixed signals. COT data suggests more higher price to come in the longer term and my long term bias is to the upside. I would like to give it a while and see if the price gives us more clues on which direction it will go. For now, expect 0.7550 resistance and a pull back from there.