Daily Technical Analysis

Today's Risk Events

1:30pm USD Final GDP q/q
Expected to print 2% vs 1.9% previously. If the GDP comes in line with expectation is likely to be positive for USD in the short term. FED will be looking at the development of GDP and the figure will matter for their rate hike decisions for the rest of the year.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
Market expects 244K vs 261K previously. This is not a major market mover and the report has a tendency to be very stable. Traders will be looking at GDP figures.

EURUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: REVERSING TO THE DOWNSIDE
Signals: NO

Notes: EURUSD was trading lower after forming daily engulfing candle. The pair closed the day at 1.0765, printing lower low at the overbought weekly momentum. This is the second element of the bearish reversal pattern. I expect the market to stage a correction from the current levels towards 1.0820, which is WM3 Pivot Point and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the most recent leg down. This should be enough reasons for bears to engage. I will looking for shorts above 1.0820 with targets as low as 1.060

GBPUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: REVERSING TO THE DOWNSIDE
Intraday: REVERSING TO THE DOWNSIDE
Signals: NO

Notes: Cable barely moved after the British PM triggered Article 50 this afternoon. The pair initially declined but then recovered losses and closed the day at 1.2440. GBPUSD, similar to EURUSD formed engulfing candle at the resistance and printed lower low below 1.2430. These are two major elements of the bearish reversal pattern already in place. I will be looking out for the final retracement to the upside to complete reversal pattern. I expect the price to rally towards 1.2500. This is 50% Fibonacci retracement and WM3 Pivot Point. It is a perfect place to enter shorts with target below 1.200 and stop losses just above the most recent high 1.2600

USDJPY

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH/FLAT
Daily Momentum: FLAT/REVERSING TO THE UPSIDE
Intraday: FLAT/REVERSING TO THE UPSIDE
Signals: NO

Notes: USDJPY traded water today. It looks like this market is waiting for some risk related event to move either direction. Tomorrow’s US Final GDP could provide some volatility in the short term. In today’s trading USDJPY didnt managed to break above the recent highs at 111.50 and stayed firmly below 111. Weekly momentum is getting oversold and suggests that the bottom could be near. 111.50 is a significant level. The break and re-test of that level would give enough reasons for the bulls to bid the price even higher. I will be waiting for 111.50 to be broken and retested. If the expected bullish reversal plays out, targets are likely to reach 115. Stop could be placed just below the most recent lows – 110.

AUDUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH 
Daily Momentum: RANGE
Intraday: RANGE
Signals: NO

Notes: Aussie traded higher today. The pair climbed and closed the day at 0.7670 area. The price action and momentum analysis is not clear at this stage to say which direction AUDUSD is likely to move. For now, I expect the price to range between 0.7750 and 0.7550. My bias is to the upside and I would like to see Aussie touching the resistance at 0.7750 in the next few trading sessions. If this is the case during overbought momentum, the resistance at 0.7750 is likely to hold once again. There will be opportunities for bears in the short term.

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