Daily Technical Analysis 25 Jan 2017



Today's Risk Events

9:30am GBP Prelim GDP q/q
Market expects 0.5% down from revised 0.6% previously. There has been a pretty good data coming out of UK recently. Unfortunately, it is overshadowed by the Brexit saga. Any, even much better numbers would have a little impact on the British currency.

EURUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BECOMING BEARISH
Intraday: BULLISH TOWARD 1.0850
Signals: No

Notes: EURUSD traded in the tight range after a down day suggesting the upwards momentum is dying out.  The weekly stochastic are now overbought and the pair is ripe for the reversal to the downside. The major resistance still sits above 1.0850 but the Pivot Points analysis suggests that the current level could be where this market rolls down. Let’s watch for a double top on intraday charts.

GBPUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BULLISH
Intraday: BULLISH
Signals: NO

Notes: Cable had another strong day and finished the day at around 1.2620. As expected, it is climbing towards the resistance at 1.2710. Similarly to EURUSD the current area could be where this market tops out and reverses to the downside. WR2 Pivot Point sits at 1.2680 and it could be an area eyed by bears. Weekly momentum is still to the upside though. 

USDJPY

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BEARISH TURNING BULLISH
Intraday: DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMED
Signals: NO

Notes: USDJPY traded lower today. It seems like the pair is in consolidation mode and perhaps is forming a triple bottom at 112.60 area. The strong downtrend is definitely losing momentum and the price is more resilient to selling. If the 113 holds and the price makes higher high form here, it could be bought at the retrecament towards 113.50.

AUDUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH 
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: MOMENTUM IS NOW OVERBOUGHT. LOOK OUT FOR BEARISH REVERSAL
Signals: NO

Notes: Aussie declined right after lower than expected CPI report this morning. I wonder if this is  the catalyst for a sell off? Aussie is now trading at overbought momentum and the turn to the downside is imminent. The pair traded as low as 0.7514 and finished a day at 0.7570. The breakout from this range ( 0.7514-0.7570) could be a beginning of larger move down. I will be looking to enter short positions this or early next week depending on the price action. I would like to see a lower low breaking 0.7450 and a retrecament towards 0.7600 first.