Daily Technical Analysis

Today's Risk Events

1:30pm USD Prelim GDP q/q
A quarterly GDP figure is expected to print 2.1% vs 1.9% previously. GDP numbers has been coming our strong recently. There is no reason to believe this number will be worse than expected. Good number will be supportive for USD and interest rate hikes. Only large deviations to the downside will have impact on the price of US Dollar.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
Confidence figures are expected to come in at 111.3 vs 111.8 pior. Again this report should not surprise and is likely to be USD supportive.

EURUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BEARISH TO FLAT
Intraday: FLAT/RANGE
Signals: NO

Notes: EURUSD traded higher higher again. The pair climbed as high as 1.0625 ( week high ) and it is closing the day at 1.0586. The overall price action is still pointing to the downside but the momentum is getting oversold on weekly charts, which is most often a good indicator of the reversal. As I mentioned in earlier analysis, I expect EURUSD to range trade for a while between 1.0625 and 1.0525. Ideally, the pair should print a double bottom at 1.0525 and form a  higher high above 1.06 to consider long positions on retracements from that high. This pattern has not formed yet. I expect this market to slowely trend lower and bounce back up some times this week. The firm break of 1.0525 and a re-test would invalidate long outlook as more selling would follow

GBPUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: GETTING BULLISH
Intraday: NO CLEAR REVERSAL FORMED YET
Signals: NO

Notes: After a breakout last week to the upside, Cable declined again wiping these gains. The pair is trading around a major support at 1.2390 with low volume. 1.2390 is an important level. If the price breaks it to the downside and re-tests, shorts positions should be considered with targets around 1.2080. If the market decides to bounce up from the support, its likely we will see 1.2700 in the near term. Overall weekly momentum is flat with no clear signs of either direction. I will stay away from GBPUSD for now.

USDJPY

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: FLAT/REVERSING
Intraday: FLAT/REVERSING
Signals: NO

Notes: USDJPY traded close to the recent support at 111.60 and reversed back up during NY session. It is closing the day with engulfing candle near 112.70. An engulfing candle near the support is fairly bullish signal and it is likely this market will climb higher from here. Weekly oversold momentum supports higher prices. I would like to see higher high above 113.70 and a retracement back down to 112.70 to enter longs. Break below 111.60 will in-validate bullish scenario and more selling will take place, bringing this market lower. I am in favor of higher prices as long as we trade and close above 111.60.

My LONG TRADE closed one lot at 60 pips profits, the second one broke even.

AUDUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH 
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: MOMENTUM IS NOW OVERBOUGHT. LOOK OUT FOR BEARISH REVERSAL
Signals: SHORT HERE

Notes: Aussie traded lower, away from the resistance and it closed lower two day in a row.My previous analysis stands valid. I expect this market to collapse to the downside in the near future. Only sharp leg up to new highs will in-validate short outlook.

Aussie rallied and tested the resistance at 0.7740 once again. Today’s candle looks very in-decisive and suggests that the current uptrend might be running out of steam, or at least running out of buyers in the market. Collapse to the downside seems imminent. Price and momentum divergence is now extreme with stochastics being overbought for weeks. It seems like this resistance is a major obstacle for bulls. In such a scenario, lower prices should follow, at least in the short term.

Lower low below 0.76 must be present for the SHORT TRADE to be triggered. I revised my entry to 0.7640 ( after lower low below this level is formed )

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