Daily Technical Analysis

Today's Risk Events

12:30am AUD GDP q/q
Australian GDP is expected to come in at 0.7% vs a negative 0.5% previously. Australian data has been strong but AUDUSD is trading at the major resistance and is overdue a correction to the downside. Strong USD data might prevail, overshadowing even much better Australian GDP figure.
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Expected to print 50.9 vs 51.0 previously. As long as this figures stays above the 50 mark, it indicates expansion and should be positive for the market. Lower than 50 would suggest contraction and could send equities and commodities currencies lower. Watch AUD during this event.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI
Market expects 55.7 vs 55.9 pior. Manufacturing is not a major part of British economy and this report tends to have little impact on the GBP. ( unless massive deviation is the case ) UK services PMIs are much more important in FX.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
FED’s prefered measure of inflation is expected to print 0.3% vs 0.1% previously. Market tends to react much more to CPI reports so I don’t expect this to have much impact, unless major deviation is printed.
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate
Expected to stay unchanged at 0.5%. Traders will watch for the tone of the statement. Speculators loaded up on long CAD futures recently and a hawkish tone of the statement could confirm long bias in CAD
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Expected to come in at 56.2 vs 56.0 prior. This is likely to be a market mover as manufacturing is a significant part of US economy and traders will be watching it

EURUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: FLAT/RANGE
Intraday: FLAT/RANGE
Signals: NO

Notes: EURUSD made a mini double top at 1.0630 and fell down again. Today’s data was mixed US GDP disappointed printing less than expectation but the Consumer confidence came in fairly strong. Overall USD was strong against major currencies during NY session. As I mentioned before, this market is likely to range between 1.0625 and 1.0525. This has been the case in the last few trading days. EURUSD is unable to breach 1.0625. My bias remains to the upside, given speculative positions and the weekly momentum becoming overbought. I would like to see a double bottom at 1.0525 and a higher low to enter longer term longs here. For now, range bound strategy would perform best.

GBPUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: NO CLEAR REVERSAL FORMED YET
Signals: NO

Notes: No much action in Cable ( no surprise there ). The support at 1.2390 holds once again but the pair is trading very near to it. This weeks PMIs can provide some volatility to this boring price action. I advise to watch out for services PMI on Friday. If that number is lower than expected, Cable is likely to trade below the support next week.Weekly momentum is mixed with no clear direction. Price action is looking very bearish for now. If Cable breaks 1.2390 to the downside and re-tests, bears should go on board as more selling will follow. Lower targets for shorts lie around 1.20

USDJPY

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: REVERSING TO UPSIDE
Intraday: REVERSING TO UPSIDE
Signals: NO

Notes: USDJPY traded lower but held the support at 111.65. The price printed double bottom around that area and advanced sharply. It looks like the day will close with a higher daily close, which is a fairly reliable reversal pattern. Given the pair traded lowest in weeks but it closed the day above the previous candle,  shows that shorts are being stopped out and buyers are in control. It is very likely that USDJPY will take  a major turn to the upside form the current level. Weekly momentum is clearly oversold, Commitments of Traders suggest, smart money are short JPY, price reversed sharply from the major support. Theses are enough reasons for bulls to get involved. I will be watching for a higher high and a retracement to enter longs.

AUDUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH 
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: MOMENTUM IS NOW OVERBOUGHT. LOOK OUT FOR BEARISH REVERSAL
Signals: SHORT HERE

Notes: Aussie finally is rolling over the the downside. The pair traded lowest in few week finally breaking 0.7660. I would expect this to print a little lower, reverse to test the resistance at 0.7650 -0.7700 area and make a large correction to the downside. All elements have been in place for the last 3 weeks. Weekly momentum is clearly overbought, the price tested and got rejected from a major resistance. All we need now is a lower low and the resistance re-test to enter long awaited short positions. Lets see… Watch tonight’s AUD GDP. It could provide needed volatility ( if prints lower than expected figure )

Lower low below 0.76 must be present for the SHORT TRADE to be triggered. I revised my entry to 0.7640 ( after lower low below this level is formed )

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