Daily Technical Analysis 26 Jan 2017



Today's Risk Events

Tuesday 31 Jan

6:30am JPY BOJ Press Conference + Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement, JPY BOJ Outlook Report, JPY NBOJ Policy Rate
The is no change expected in the BOJ monetary policy. Watch the tone and comments for any hints regarding the policy for the rest of the 2017.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
This could be a market mover given the recent comments about Eurozone inflation approaching ECB’s targets. Traders will be looking to confirm this statement. Any deviations to the downside will send Euro down.
10:00am EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q
Market is expecting 0.4% VS 0.3% previously. The last two months printed 0.3%.
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m
Expected to print 0.3% vs a negative 0.3% prior month. This will be an interesting one given speculators became net long on CAD futures last week. A positive GDP print could significantly move CAD prices. CAD is highly correlated to the Oil prices so it worth looking at those two markets together before deciding to trade.
9:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q
Employment is expected to come at 0.8% vs 1.4% prior. The expectation is down compared to previous months. 0.8% was last seen early 2016.

EURUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: BEARISH REVERSAL FORMED
Signals: SHORT

Notes: EURUSD staged the expected lower low today . The pair moved as low as 1.0620 earlier and retraced back up. Currently it is trading at 1.0695. The short position was placed. Details HERE I expect EURUSD to decline from the current levels. Only the break above 1.0780 would suggest the change in sentiment. 

GBPUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BULLISH
Intraday: BULLISH
Signals: NO

Notes: Cable was trading lower today. The weekly momentum suggest more upside to come but the intraday chart is looking very bearish. I would like to see the double top and the lower low before calling it short. The pattern is not present. For now, the next major support is at 1.2410 area. Cable might touch it before making another attempt at 1.2730 resistance. It could also slip to the downside. The reversal is not clear hence I stay on the side lines on this one.

USDJPY

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH
Daily Momentum: BULLISH
Intraday: DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMED
Signals: NO

Notes: USDJPY dropped from the resistance at 115.30 and retraced towards support at 114. It is currently trading at  61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Weekly momentum is not fully overbought, which could suggest, the pair is likely to form triple bottom. The recent leg up to 115.30 ( marked 1 on the chart ) cannot be defined as higher high. The reversal is not clear hence I will stay away and watch it develop.

AUDUSD

Intraday

Daily

Weekly

Weekly Bias: BULLISH 
Daily Momentum: BEARISH
Intraday: MOMENTUM IS NOW OVERBOUGHT. LOOK OUT FOR BEARISH REVERSAL
Signals: NO

Notes: Aussie turned into range trading. The pair touched the support at 0.7515 once again and moved up. The upwards momentum is looking weak for now. With China on holidays this week, I expect AUDUSD to continue to range for a while. It is likely to form a double top at 0.7600. If it does and it holds, we will re-visit short setup once again. The break of the support at 0.7515 before that, will indicate more downside