Elliott Wave weekly picture – 09-23-16, Dow poised to Surge, Euro poised to sink!
- September 24, 2016
- Posted by: E. Glynn
- Category: Elliott Wave Analysis
The weekly Elliott wave outlook is a BIG picture reference point for the week ahead.
I will outline the trading opportunities I see developing, and how to prepare for those opportunities.
Current wave: Wave ‘e’ of the large ‘B’ wave triangle possibly complete.
Outlook: Lower in wave ‘C’ green, awaiting a shorting opportunity off the wave ‘B’ green, high.
This weeks analysis came good for us, our subscribers got the benefit of a nice pop in wave ‘y’ yellow shown on the chart.
This current rally is a possible combination flat correction, labelled ‘w,x,y’ in yellow, this is a corrective wave to the upside, and should finish out wave ‘2’ blue at around the 11320 region.
That is the region I am looking at to test the market to the downside again with the intention of trading wave ‘3’ blue should it happen.
Back to the current rally, it looks like the market has finished wave a grey up, and is possibly finished wave ‘b’ grey, wave ‘c’ grey should follow from here, the possible upside path is shown highlighted in the chart.
For next week I will be looking for the rally in wave ‘y’ yellow to complete, and the downside bias to reassert itself.
The invalidation point for this wave count is at the 11367 high.
If this overall wave labelling is correct, then wave ‘3’ blue to the downside should be an exciting affair!
Current wave: topping in wave ‘ii’ black, on the daily chart
Outlook: lower in wave ‘iii’ black, Possible shorting opportunity at the wave ‘ii’ black high.
Cable kept to the program all week with rise after fall all being tracked successfully on the nightly analysis.
I think we have now completed a five wave structure to the downside, labelled wave (1) grey.
Right now I am focused on the corrective rally to come.
This rally is labelled wave (2) grey on the chart.
We are at an interesting juncture on the chart right now, as both the opperating wave count and the alternate wave count call for a rally from these levels.
The operating wave count calls for a rally into about 13200, while the alternative count calls for a rally into the 13400 region.
At this moment in time I am looking at developing a low risk entry strategy to buy into this coming rally.
It might be an interesting week to come in cable.
Right now we have reached an oversold level on most indicators I follow which means the market is primed for a surprise to the upside.
For next week, watch for slowing downside momentum and the rally to develop.
Current wave: short term declines in a final leg down of a year long correction is coming soon.
Outlook: Medium term, Higher, in a multi month rally which should take prices well above the 2015 high of 12600.
I opened a long position in Dollar Yen this week with a buy order at the 10112 short term high.
This trade was triggered Friday evening as the market rallied back into the highs of the day.
Right now the market seems to have traced out a bullish signal with some confirming price action off the low.
I am now expecting a rally in wave ‘c’ brown shown on the chart.
The upside target for wave ‘c’ brown is in the region of 10340.
The medium term outlook for dollar yen is still lower in wave (c) grey, but Fridays market action offered a low risk trade which I took.
For next week, I am expecting this rally in wave ‘c’ brown to be short and sharp.
The current invalidation line for this wave count lies at 10434, which is the high at wave (b) grey.
Current wave: wave ‘iii’ black target 1460
Outlook: Medium term, Higher, in a multi month rally, upper target above 1500.
Last week I was looking for a pop to the upside in Gold, we have seen that the Gold price is developing an upside bias as the days go by.
We now have 2 weeks in a row where the market has risen impulsively and declined correctively. this leads me to believe that there is a rush to the upside developing and the pressure to get started is building.
I have shown the daily chart today, and on the chart I have shown the most bullish interpretation of the waves.
This wave count views the recent rise and higher low as a minor wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ sequence to the upside.
If this is correct, we should get a serious push to the upside coming our way in wave ‘iii’ black.
The upside target lies at around 1500 to complete this final rally in Gold, the focus will then switch to the downside in a multi year decline I believe.
But that is getting ahead of the game a bit, for the moment I am a super bull on gold.
Last weeks trade entry advice turned out great for anybody who took it.
The market may post a small decline on monday to give another opportunity to enter with a stop at last weeks low.
we will see on that front.
The upside target for wave ‘iii’ black lies at around 1460.
Things could heat up soon.
Current wave: wave ‘iii’ yellow, target 20000.
Outlook: For the medium term, Higher, in a rally which should take prices to a new all time high.
So far so good for the Dow wave count!
Last week I spoke of a low risk entry point in the Dow, and this week we got a 200 point rally.
I think there is a whole lot more to go before the Dow has completed the five wave structure which is underway.
This longer term structure is shown on the chart labelled in blue.
The wave count shows waves 1 through four blue as complete and the market is currently moving up in wave 5 blue.
The upper target for wave 5 blue is in the region of 20000, so that ironically famous book which was published back in 2006 might live up to its title after all.
Wave 5 blue will itself trace out five internal waves, as I see it, we have completed waves (i) and (ii) yellow, this means the market is about to rally in wave (iii) yellow.
This market could go vertical soon in wave (iii) yellow.
The first point of confirmation for this bullish wave count lie’s at the wave (1) yellow high.
If the market passes up through this point, I think the wave count is validated and we can expect big moves.
The low at wave (ii) is also the current support level and short term invalidation line for the immediately bullish wave count.
For next week I will be looking for signs that wave (iii) yellow is underway, and another low risk entry point to go long.
I will see our subscribers in the Sunday night video.
To all the rest of you guy’s,
have a great weekend and happy hunting!
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