USDJPY finally found some resistance around 118.30 area. The pair formed our favourite pattern = double top + lower low. This is an excellent bearish reversal pattern. On the top of this, JPY seasonal bullishness is also at play. JPY tends to gain value in the first 3 weeks of the trading year – every year.
EURUSD put a very sharp decline after presidential elections last week. The pair had 8 consecutive days with lower closes each day. It pierced through the support at 1.0900 and it is now trading 1.0670. There is a potential for only shallow correction and another leg down from these levels but given quiet risk calendar this week I expect larger correction back towards 1.0900. - See more at: http://humbletraders.com/23-nov-eurusd-long/#sthash.xqr2oOjI.dpuf
USD/JPY finally broke below 104 today leaving 103 as the next major level of support level for the currency pair although some buyers could sweep in near 103.50. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged and pushed out their forecast for bringing inflation back to target from 2017 to the 2018 fiscal year. The BoJ maintained a pessimistic tone, acknowledging the risks to inflation and growth despite a nice rise in the manufacturing PMI index.
EURUSD has been trading down for the last couple of weeks. The pair pierced through all supports and only now is finding some bids.
After good data I expect this market to correct to the upside in the short term
The current reversal pattern is consistent and the risk is small.
USDJPY moved substantially from the bottom at around 100 and pushed closed to the resistance at 104. The pair consolidated here for a few days and moved as low as 103.40 yesterday.
Since then, the price climbed higher to re-test the resistance/former support at 103.70.
I entered a short position at the resistance at 103.70 with the open target. I want to see what the stock will do in the next few days and the reaction to risk events this week.
Kiwi has been declining since the beginning of September. The pair took a tumble on lower than expected growth projections, poor data on dairy prices and slowdown in China. This week we had RBNZ warning to lower interest rates once again. All this saw a huge carry unwind (KIWI is still the currency with highest interest rates among the peers).
Today, for a change, we saw better numbers from China; CPI @1.9 VS 1.6 EXPECTED, PPI @0.3 VS 0.1 expected. This might mean that not all things are bad in China yet.
After the longest period of range trading, EURUSD finally broke out of the tight channel ( 1.1251.1130).
In today’s session the pair declined to 1.1150, lowest level in weeks.
I expect the lower low to be formed around this level and the price to retrace back up to re-test the resistance/former support at 1.1130.
AUDUSD has been trading lower for 6 consecutive weeks now. The price has formed a sizeable correction from the highs at 0.7750.
As I remain bullish in this market based on C.O.T analysis, it looks like the price is now matured to print another major leg up in the long term.
I will be looking to enter long position from the current levels.
After no much stimulus promises from Drahi this afternoon, EURUSD declined from the daily high at 1.1320 and is approaching a major support at 1.1260.
The pair was in a short term uptrend for a while and declining probabilities of FED raising interest rates should support the current up move.
GBPUSD has been showing some signs of strength despite the Brexit and the latest Yellen’s comments. It has been trading in the tight range and it didn’t form a strong downtrend as EURUSD has. This tells me that there could be some more buyers than we think.
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