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Daily Trading Setups, Trading Ideas and Technical Analysis

All time frames covered. Issued daily

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01:30 (GMT) AUD CPI q / q / Trimmed Mean CPI q / q

Inflationary consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter of this year, published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, assesses the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services in Australia. CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in buyers’ preferences. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for AUD, and a low value is negative. The previous value of the indicator is 0.6%. The forecast is expected to grow to 0.5%, which should positively affect the AUD. If the value of the indicator is lower than the forecast, this will negatively affect the AUD. /

The RBA’s core inflation index by the truncated average for the first quarter, published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Reflects the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services that make up the consumer basket. The simple truncated mean method takes into account the weighted average core, the central 70% of the components of the index. The previous value of the index was 0.4%. The forecast is expected to be 0.5%, which should positively affect the AUD.

14:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence

This indicator is published by the Conference Board and reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates an increase in the economy, while a low indicates stagnation. The previous value of the indicator is 127.7.

The growth of the indicator will strengthen USD, and a decrease in value will weaken the dollar. It is expected that this indicator will come out with a value of 126.0, which will have a negative impact on the dollar when the forecast is confirmed[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_custom_heading text=”EURUSD” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:3″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1484256748064{background-color: #457992 !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Intraday” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Weekly” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_column_text 0=””]Weekly Bias: Bearish/Flat
Daily Momentum: Bearish
Support: 1.2200
Resistance:1.2330

Notes:
EURUSD plummeted sharply in today’s trading driven by very strong US Dollar. The pair closed the day at the lower band of the range @1.2210. This level is a major support and it is likely to hold, at least in the short term. Its hard to know if the Dollar’s rally will continue or will it be capped at these levels. ECB may be the catalyst for EURUSD to either resume uptrend or move substantially lower.

Trading idea –End of the range?
The price is sitting at 100 days moving average @1.2210. If we assume the downtrend scenario, I would like to wait for the price to retrace back up to 1.23 -1.2320 resistances to enter shorts. On the other hand, it is likely that the current level will hold, and the pair will move higher form here. This is not clear to me as of now but the move to the downside looks plausible.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_custom_heading text=”GBPUSD” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:3″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1484256788327{background-color: #457992 !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Intraday” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Weekly” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_column_text 0=””]Weekly Bias: Bullish
Daily Momentum: Bullish
Support: 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4400

Notes:
Cable declined for another day. This was a 5th consecutive day with losses in GBPUSD.  The pair closed the session at 1.3935. This decline is very aggressive and might continue for another while. The probability of BOE raising rates next month plummeted to 50% when Carney said it probably will not happen. The trend is still to the upside and the speculative positions are firmly bullish. My bias also remains to the upside and I will be looking to buy Cable when I get a chance.

Trading idea – waiting to buy
The price is still in an aggressive decline. I would like to wait and see where it is going to bottom. It is likely there is some more downside to play out. I will be looking to buy it once the bottom is formed. There are no clear signals with this price action for now.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_custom_heading text=”USDJPY” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:3″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1484256663884{background-color: #457992 !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Intraday” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Weekly” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_column_text 0=””]Weekly Bias: Bearish
Daily Momentum: Bearish
Support: 105.00
Resistance:109.00

Notes:
US 10 year yields came within a whisker of the 3.00% handle in early London dealing today driving dollar higher across the board.
USDJPY broached the 108.00 figure for the first time in 2 months. The pair closed the session at 108.70. The rally in US yields has been building for a week as hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials kept the pressure on rates despite any clear signs of inflation or growth. It will be interesting to see how the US Dollar rally will develop in the coming weeks. Speculators are clearly on the other side of this transaction, suggesting this up move is temporary.

Trading idea strong>
The price pierced the resistance and it is approaching 109.00 level. To me, this rally will be soon capped and USDJPY is more likely to move down. There are no signals for now, but I will be looking for the price to break below 20 days moving average first to enter any shorts.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_custom_heading text=”AUDUSD” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:3″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1484256605241{background-color: #457992 !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Intraday” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Weekly” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_column_text 0=””]Weekly Bias: Bullish
Daily Momentum: Bearish
Support: 0.7580
Resistance: 0.8100

Notes:
Aussie moved lower on the back of a very strong US Dollar. The pair broke down and closed the session at 0.7600, lowest so far this year. The same theme dominates all USD crosses. Its hard to know if the Dollar’s rally will be sustained or not. In my opinion all USD crosses will return to their longer-term trends eventually, meaning the rally will fade. For AUDUSD it will be uptrend from the current levels.

Trading idea
My short position was closed out this morning at 0.76300. At this stage, the downside might continue for another while. I would like to wait until it plays out to re-enter my long positions. My longer-term bias is unchanged. I believe, AUDUSD will be trading higher eventually.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_custom_heading text=”Dollar Index ” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:3″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1497992291241{background-color: #457992 !important;}”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Intraday” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Weekly” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text 0=””][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row 0=””][vc_column 0=””][vc_column_text 0=””]Weekly Bias: Bearish
Daily Momentum: Bearish
Support: 88.30
Resistance: 91.00
Notes:
U.S. dollar rallied to a seven-week high on Monday as investors bought the greenback on the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield toward the psychologically important 3 percent level. DXY finished the day at 90.68, the highest level since 28th February. The next resistance level sits at 91.00. This is a major point and the price can find some fierce resistance there. But If we break through it, it will open the door for more upside and a larger rally in USD. I don’t think this will be the case though.

Trading idea
It’s not clear to me what the price will do next. 91.00 is likely to be taken out fairly soon but it will be a much bigger effort to break it and move higher. I would assume 91.00 will hold and the USD will return to longer term downtrend. Let’s see.
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