Connect to information – Risk comes from unknown

How many times you opened your trading platform just to find the price moved unexpectedly in the direction you have anticipated?

You had been watching this price for a while, waiting for perfect opportunity to enter just to find the price taken off.

 

The reason?
Unexpected news just came out and moved the markets. The price is now 100 pips away from your perfect entry point. It is too late to enter. This scenario is typical for inexperienced trader.

Feeling left behind, he will try to chase the price and enter the market too late.
This normally ends up in losing trade and takes away from trader’s confidence.

It’s hard to keep up with the weekly trading events, especially if you work full time, have family or other commitments. Its time consuming to research and organise weekly Forex events.
Even if you manage to do that, you tend to forget about them and find yourself missing the boat.

To be successful in this game, not only you have to pay attention to major data releases but also you need ensure you are there when they happen.

It is very important for a trader to stay connected to all relevant happenings in the markets to, not only to capitalise on them but to take away risk from the equation and to be able to recognise longer term trends.

  • There are many examples of how the market events affect currency prices, for example:
  • Brexit vote – 24th June 2016 GBPUSD falls 1700 pips in one session
  • Trump elected President – 9th Nov 2016 EURUSD climbs 300 pips and falls 400 pips in one day
  • UK government announcement 18th April 2017 GBPUSD rises 300 pips in one hour
  • First round of French elections – results announced 24th April 2017 EURUSD opens 210 pips higher on Monday morning

Its essential to FX traders to be aware of these events to maximise profits and minimise risks. It is not easy to keep up with everything in efficient way. Especially if you work all day and you get distracted by other things during the day. It’s easy to miss the market events and trading opportunities, let alone try to connect all dots and spot overall economic trends per currency.

Nonetheless, it must be done.

Economic indicators occur in a steady stream, at certain times. The data is generally released monthly apart from interest rate decisions or quarterly GDP reports.

Economic indicators are released at various times. In the United States, economic data is generally released at 8:30 and 10 am ET. It is important to remember rus escort that the most significant data for foreign exchange is released at 8:30 am ET. In order to allow time for last-minute adjustments, the United States currency futures markets open at 8:20 am ET.

There are several good calendars and sources you should visit on regular basis. My favourite would be Forex factory and Investing.com calendars.

There is a lot of info and you will need to filter through it to eliminate the noise.

Once you decide on which indicators you want to follow, you will need to set the alerts. I like my alerts on the phone and my email hence I use a very handy Chrome escort bayan extension and a google calendar to accomplish that.

Follow these steps:

  • Go here and add “Send to Calendar” to your Chrome browser
  • Go to Investing.com calendar and select risk events you want to follow
  • Watch this video to see how to add them to google calendar
  • Add them to google calendar
  • Receive alerts on your phone and in your inbox right before they are released

This will alert you based on your calendar settings before each event is released so you can either trade it or edit your open positions accordingly. This is very Madult.net simple routine that will let you follow the market events on daily basis, even if you are on the road or at work.

There is a lot of noise out there and you will need to be able to pick up information and separate it from those that matter and those that don’t. Avoid opinions and talking heads. My advice is to stick with the hard numbers and forget watching CNBC or reading main stem newspapers. Remember, these people are journalists not hedge fund managers. They’re in the business to sell adds. You will get just another option from them.

I keep my own google doc spreadsheet with most important economic events and I follow only few guys, who I know and who I trust.

I’ve selected 20 the most important indicators per each currency and I track them weekly/monthly. I also make notes on all revisions and track the progress over time. This simple spreadsheet eliminates the noise and lets me see the bullishness or bearishness of the individual currency ON ONE PAGE.

This is very handy to form my bias and know what is happening on the markets

See example of an Australian Dollar data for April and so far in May. You can clearly see how the Australian economy under-performed in April and there is only poor data coming out so far in May. This ONE PAGE gives me enough reasons to be bearish on AUD

 

 

Looking again at EUR, I see Eurozone is getting much healthier, despite a negative sentiment on the market

 

 

How does it matter?

Let’s see the chart of those two currencies ( EURAUD). This market went up 800 pips during this time!

 

 

So, As you see being connected to the markets pays!

I also follow Commitments of traders and Fed Watch

COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
This is an essential part of my market analysis. The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
FED WATCH
Based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, the CME Group FedWatch tool allows market participants to view the probability of an upcoming Fed Rate hike.

To put it all together in one place I publish a weekly market analysis every Monday. The report lists out all important risk events for the coming week together with the analysis and the market expectations.

You can see examples here:

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS. WEEK ENDING 7TH MAY. SHORT WEEK. NFP AND EARNINGS AHEAD

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS. WEEK ENDING 14TH MAY. US CONSUMER DATA IN FOCUS

 

You are connected to information if you can answer these questions:

  • How many rate hikes FED promised for 2017?
  • When is the next FOMC meeting?
  • What is the probability of November hike?
  • Is RBNZ bullish or bearish on New Zealand economy?
  • Were Australian retail sales good or bad for April and May?
  • What days is NFP report scheduled?
  • Are speculators bullish or bearish on EUR Futures?
  • What is Eurozone inflation rate YoY? Is it good or bad?

 

 

 

By Roman Sadowski

I truly believe the journey to profitability and freedom is a function of hard work, commitment, persistence and boring routines There is no magic to trading. I believe in making calm rational decisions what, when and how to trade based on a decade of intense learning. Visit us at Humble Traders

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