[vc_row full_width=”stretch_row” css=”.vc_custom_1518384286912{background-color: #1e73be !important;}”][vc_column][vc_column_text]
The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_teacher” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_book_stack” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_market_research” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bullish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The Euro has rallied significantly during the week, reaching towards the 50 week EMA, which of course is crucial. At this point in time, the 1.12 level should offer significant resistance as it has previously been significant support. Beyond that, it is also the top of the down trending channel, so therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we have pulled back from a technical analysis standpoint.
Positions:
Speculators left their long positions unchanged this week, while covering 1K of their shorts. This is fairly long bias. The recent rally in EURUSD confirms the speculative outlook. Smart money were 67.6K net short, which was slightly lower from 69K in the previous week. Speculative positions are on 33 weeks moving average, which is rather undecided but given other factors and a bullish price action, my bias is to the upside and I will be looking to buy EURUSD on dips.
Strategy:
Buy EURUSD on dips
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bullish GBPUSD
The British pound spiked early on Friday after the election results confirmed a Tory victory in parliament. That being said though, the 1.35 level has been like a brick wall for this pair.
The British pound initially pulled back a bit during the week but turned around to show signs of strength again going into the election. Once the conservatives actually won a majority and Parliament, we saw a spike higher and towards the 1.35 handle, before rolling over again and showing a bit of a give back in. Because of this, it looks as if we probably have a continued uptrend trying to build itself, but now we have real work to do.
Positions:
It was a big week in British politics and the speculative money took their side in terms of the price of British currency. This week speculators were bullish for a second week in a row. They added 4.1K new long positions and they covered 3.2K of their shorts. This is clear aggressive bullish outlook.
Speculators were 22.6K net short, which was least short since April 2019. Speculative positions are trending above 33 weeks moving average as well. All variables point to more upside in GBPUSD in the coming weeks. I expect the price to push further up.
Strategy:
Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDJPY
Wall Street hits record highs after US President Trump suggests imminent deal with China.
Higher US yields and risk appetite weaken the Japanese yen.
The USD/JPY pair jumped from 108.60 to 109.30, reaching the highest level in over a week following the latest trade headlines that triggered a rally in Wall Street.
Fresh expectations of a deal between the US and China on tariffs before the December 15 deadline boosted equity markets. The Dow Jones hit new record highs and now is up 0.35%, off highs as optimism eased.
US bonds tumbled, pushing the yen lower across the board. The US 10-year yield rose more than 5% from 1.80% to near 1.90% in a few minutes. Other safe haven assets like gold, also dropped significantly.
Positions:
Speculators took profits this week. They covered 6.4K of their long positions and 10.6K of their short positions. They were 43.7K net short, which was lower from 47.8K in the previous week.The price action is still pointing to the upside and I expect this to continue in the next few weeks.
Strategy – no change:
Buy USDJPY on dips
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
Bullish momentum has continued to dominate the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar on Thursday. The currency pair hit November 5th high level at 0.6936 during yesterday’s trading session. As for the near future, the AUD/USD exchange rate could make a brief retracement down towards a support cluster formed by the weekly R1 and the monthly R1 at the 0.6881 zones. The currency exchange rate will most likely continue its bullish movement from the given support level, as mentioned earlier, during the following trading session.
Positions:
Speculators also took profits in AUD Futures. They covered 11K long positions and 10.5K short positions this week. They were 36.8K net short, which was almost unchanged from the previous week. Net speculative positions trend above 33 weeks moving average and the price action is pushing upwards. I expect more upside in AUDUSD market in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
Last week was busy for the Canadian dollar. The currency dropped below 1.32 and touched a 1-month high on Thursday, but reversed directions on Friday and lost ground. USD/CAD took advantage as Canadian employment numbers sagged, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls were much stronger than expected.
In Canada, November employment numbers were dismal. Employment fell by a remarkable 71.2 thousand, its worst decline since January 2018. Analysts had expected a gain of 10.0 thousand. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.5%, up sharply from 5.5% a month earlier.
Positions:
More profit taking going on in CAD Futures market. This week speculators covered 8.7K of their long positions and 8K of their long positions. They were 20.7K net long, only slightly changed from 21.4K in the previous week. The speculative positions trend above 33 weeks moving averages and the price of USDCAD is likely to continue to move downwards.
Strategy:
Sell USDCAD on rallies
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
TRY OUR POPULAR COURSES & STRATEGIES
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”mulled_wine” border_width=”4″][stm_testimonials testimonials_text_color=”#000000″ testimonials_slides_per_row=”2″ testimonials_title=”See what others think about Humbletraders” testimonials_max_num=”10″][vc_separator color=”mulled_wine” border_width=”4″][/vc_column][/vc_row]
