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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Neutral
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The Euro market rallied against the US dollar for the majority of the week, reaching towards the 1.1150 level before pulling back a bit early on Friday. Quite frankly, we are facing a significant amount of resistance just above and this is a completely messy chart at the moment. Yes, it is an extraordinarily strong and bullish candlestick that we have seen recently, where the Euro exploded straight up in the air and then got slammed right back down.
Positions:
Speculative positions confirm higher prices in EURUSD.This week speculators were bullish adding 7.2K new long positions and 4.6K short positions. They were 75.2K new long, which was up from 72.5K in the previous week. The price action spiked and EURUSD finished the week at 3 month high – above 1.11. I would expect the uptrend to strengthen from here on
Strategy:
Buy EURUSD on dips
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate held steady this morning as markets await US President Donald Trump’s announcement on ‘new’ policies against China. The pairing is currently trading around $1.23.
The US Dollar (USD) remained steady this morning as markets remain cautious amidst escalating tensions between the US and China.
This follows China’s imposition of new national legislation on Hong Kong. This has resulted in a number of important questions around the ‘phase one’ trade deal between the two superpowers.
Michael Hewson, the Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK, commented:
‘Having spent most of this week ignoring the prospect of an escalation of US, China tension over Hong Kong, despite various smoke signals throughout the week suggesting a confrontation was brewing, US markets turned tail sharply late last night on reports that President Trump was going to be holding a press conference later today on China.
Positions:
Speculators continue to show bearish sentiment in GBP Futures. This week they added 6.5K new shorts and only 3.3K new longs to their portfolios. This made them 22.2K net bearish, which was down from 20K in the previous week and it was highest since they became bearish back in April this year. The price action ( GBPUSD ) showed some strength last week but all signals point to mor edownside. Let see how this develops going forwardStrategy:
Sell GBPUSD on rallies
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the ¥108 level yet again. That is an area that has been quite difficult for the market to get out of, as the ¥107 level has been massive support. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be difficult to deal with for anything more than a short-term trade. Ultimately, the market will make a decision, but right now it is only deciding to go sideways. This makes quite a bit of sense that the market would do this, simply because the US dollar and the Japanese yen are both considered to be safety currencies, so that will continue to be a major issue to deal with.
Positions:
There was a big shift in speculative positions in JPY Futures this week. Speculators, after being bearish for so many weeks added almost 6K of new long positions and covered 1.3K of their short positions. They were 34K net long – significantly up from being 27K in the previous week.The price action was rather unchanged last week. Speculative positions suggest more downside in USDJPY in the coming weeks.
Strategy – no change:
Sell USDJPY on rallies
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral AUDUSD
The Australian Dollar had started the session on the front foot following some bright spots in Chinese data, which overshadowed threats from President Trump to cut ties with China.
The Australian Dollar is gaining ground versus its US counterpart for a second straight session on Friday. The Aussie Dollar US Dollar exchange rate settled on Thursday +0.24% at US$0.6637.
At 14:00 UTC, AUD/USD is trading +0.5% at US$0.6661. This is towards the upper end of the daily traded range of US$0.6613 – US$0.6683, as the Australian Dollar continues its impressive climb.
The pair is on track for a 2.3% rally across May, adding to a 6.1% surge in April. It now trades back at the same level as it was in early March prior to the coronavirus crisis spreading.
The risk sensitive Australian Dollar is posting gains as it brushes of concerns over rising US – Sino tensions. Tensions have been steadily rising between the two powers across the week as they clash over China’ controversial national security law in Hong Kong.
Positions:
Speculators added 229 long positions and 1.2K short positions this week while the price action exploded to the upside. As the COT signals remained unchanged, the price action spiked upwards and finished the week at 3 month high. My bias remains neutral but I will be on a look out for bullish signals in this market.
Strategy:
Sell AUDUSD on rallies
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDCAD
Americans and Britons returned from their long weekend holidays refreshed and eager to take on risk. Lockdown restrictions implemented across the globe to combat the COVID-19 pandemic are easing. U.K. and American beaches were packed. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters on Monday that non-essential retailers, which include outdoor markets and car dealers, can start reopening beginning June 1.
Traders pushed China/U.S. and China/HK tensions to the back burner. China is President Trump’s favourite “whipping boy” to help bolster his re-election prospects. China’s planned crackdown on Hong Kong protesters, fueled risk aversion last week but those fears were overshadowed by the improved outlook for global economic growth as world economies start to reopen.
Asia equity traders liked what they heard and by the major indices closed with gains, led by a 2.6% rise in Japan’s Nikkei 225 index. Those gains led to higher prices for European equity indexes. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a strong open on Wall Street today.
Positions:
Smart money covered 1.2K of their long positions and 2.4K of their short positions. They were 34K net short, which was only a small bit changed from the 35K in the previous week
The USDCAD price action collapsed last week. With speculators taking profits, I would expect more downside in this market in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Sell USDCAD on rallies
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