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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bottoming
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bearish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bullish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Becoming oversold and bottoming
US Durable Goods Orders jumped by 2.7% in March, more than triple the initial expectations. Excluding defense and air, aka the “core of the core,” orders rose by 1.3%, an encouraging figure. Not only do the data represent a revival of investment, but they also feed into today’s US GDP report.
Good news were reflected in much lower price of EURUSD. The pair broke a major support at 1.12 and it closed the week below it.
Positions:
This week speculators added 3.4K new long positions and a massive 10.8K short positions. This had pushed the price of EURUSD below 1.12 support and most likely will continue to crash the price for a little while longer. Speculators were 105K net short. This is the highest they have been since Dec 2016. There is still a room for more shorts. The historical extreme level lies at 137K net short ( Nov 2016 ). The price of EURUSD reversed and rallied from 1.04 to 1.25 in a space of few months. I expect similar move once this bottom plays out. Worth mentioning: share of open interest was at 50%, also highest since Nov 2016.
Strategy:
The bottom is likely to carve soon. Build up long term long positions.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Becoming bullish GBPUSD long term
Brexit discussions returned after the Easter parliamentary recess with talk that some MPs are trying to force another vote of confidence in PM May, despite rules stopping a vote until December. Senior Conservative MPs are becoming increasingly concerned that upcoming elections could see the Tory party lose swathes of votes and want to force PM May to state her departure date before the European elections.
Despite all concerns, smart money buys GBP futures.
Positions:
Speculators buy GBP despite a negative sentiment around Brexit. This week they added 8.5K fresh long positions and 11K shorts. They were 1.8K net short, this is after being NET LONG in the previous week. Overall, speculators have been steadily buying GBP futures in the recent week. If the trend continues, they will be solid net long in 2-3 weeks. It will be time to load up on GBP longs.
Strategy:
Expect short term downside in GBPUSD but long term long positions are preferable.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
“The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at -0.1% and the JGB yield target at zero percent, as expected. It also left asset purchases at annual pace unchanged at 80 trillion yen, J-REIT purchases at 90 billion yen and ETF purchases at 6 trillion yen. In the outlook report, the Bank trimmed its FY2019/20 growth outlook to 0.8% from 0.9% and for 2020/21 to 0.9% from 1.0%. It set an initial 2021/22 GDP growth target at 1.2%.”
USD/JPY dipped below the 112.0 handle to 111.84 after the announcement and is now at 111.99.
Positions:
Speculators covered 3.6K of their long positions and added fresh 3.6K shorts. They were 94K net short, which was highest this year yet. The share of open interest was also high ( 59.1% ) It seems like all metrics are lining up for a major top around 114.50 resistance. We might see a trend reversal off that resistance in the coming weeks.
Strategy – no change:
Still biased towards the downside here. Will be looking to sell off the resistance at 114.00
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Mixed/Bearish AUDUSD
Australian CPI dropped sharply in Q1, sending the Aussie reeling. CPI fell to 0.0%, down from 0.5% in Q4. This was the weakest reading since Q1 of 2016. Core CPI edged lower to 0.3%, shy of the estimate of 0.4%. In the U.S, last week’s numbers were positive.
AUD/USD fell to 0.7004 yesterday, the lowest since March 8, and had seen a mild bounce to 0.7023 this morning. Australia and New Zealand markets are closed today for ANZAC Day.
Positions:
Only small adjustments in AUD market. Speculators covered 1K longs and added 2.5K new shorts to their portfolios. They were 50.5K net short. The current bear market is well supported and likely to continue.
Strategy:
Sell Aud on rallies towards local resistance.
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Bank of Canada (BoC) crushed the Canadian dollar last week and set the stage for additional losses in the coming weeks. The BoC left its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.75%. That decision was widely expected. The surprise came when the central bank eliminated the reference to future rate hikes.
Positions:
Speculators added 5K new long positions and 3.3K short positions. They were 47K net short, which was slightly lower from 49K in the previous week. The current bullish sentiment in USDCAD should continue.
Strategy:
Buy USDCAD on dips in the short term.
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