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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Neutral
AUDUSD: Neutral
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Neutral
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
EUR/USD has begun to settle after a recent increase in volatility, particularly to the upside.
However, much of the recent upside in the euro was likely mechanical, owing to a repatriations of investor capital and unwinding of speculative trades.
The 100-day moving average for EUR/USD continues to favor downside, just as shorter-term moving averages continue lower.
The ECB’s current interest rate policy, combined with falling European bank stocks and lower confidence in Italy, all suggest that risk remains elevated and that markets will likely continue to favor USD over EUR.
Positions:
Although the fundamentals remain rather bearish for EUR, speculative positions paint a slightly different picture. This week they covered another 3.1K of their short positions and added a fresh 3.9K long positions. This is after a massive short covering that has been going on for the last six weeks when speculators covered 193K of their shorts. It is worth mentioning that speculators added 7.5K new long contracts during this period. This week, Smart Money was 87K net long, which was higher from 79K in the previous week and highest since they became net long a few weeks ago. This scenario favours long EUR positions in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Buy EURUSD on dips.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Neutral GBPUSD
GBP/USD has hit the highest in a month amid PM Boris Johnson’s discharge from hospital and US dollar weakness. After the OBR published worrying scenarios and markets’volatile week, economic figures are eyed
Positions:
The massive profit taking continued into this week. Speculators covered 1K of their long and 500 of their short positions. In the last five weeks, they covered 26K long and 11K short contracts.They were 3.2K net long, which was the LEAST net long this year. If this sentiment continues, we could see speculators becoming net short in the next few weeks and the price of GBPUSD going much lower. Remains to be seen…
Strategy:
Pause
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
Japanese industrial numbers headed lower in February. Industrial Production declined by 0.3%, after a gain of 1.0% in January. As well, Tertiary Industry Activity contracted by 0.5%, after a gain of 0.8% in the previous release.
In the U.S., consumer spending plunged in March. Retail sales declined by a staggering 8.7%, worse than the estimate of 8.0 percent. The core reading fell by 4.5%, beating the forecast of 4.9 percent. The employment market remains in disarray, as employment claims topped the 5-million mark. On the manufacturing front, the Philly Manufacturing Index plunged to -56.6, compared to -12.7 a month earlier. This was weaker than the estimate of -30.0 points.
Positions:
There was not much adjustment this week in the JPY market. Speculators added fresh 614 longs and 381 shorts to their portfolios. They were 22.6K net long, which was almost unchanged from 22.4K in the previous week. This is a bullish JPY outlook from speculators and it fits the overall risk sentiment. I would expect USDJPY to move lower in the coming weeks.
Strategy – no change:
Sell USDJPY on rallies
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral AUDUSD
The NAB Business Confidence index plummeted to -66 points in March, down from -4 points a month earlier. This marked a historical low for the indicator. Consumer confidence in April plunged 17.7%, after a decline of 3.8% in March. Employment numbers were unexpectedly strong. The economy created 5.9 thousand in March, above the estimate of -33.0 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher from 5.1% to 5.2%. This beat the estimate of 5.4 percent. China’s economy contracted by 6.8% in Q1, compared to a gain of 6.0% in Q4. This was worse than the estimate of -6.2 percent.
Positions:
Speculators took profit this week. They covered 4.4K of their longs and 4.3K of their shorts. They were 35.5K net short, which was unchanged from the previous week. Speculative positions trend above 33 weeks moving average, which would suggest some bullishness in this market. It’s hard to know for sure if Aussie will move up. I would like to see a firm daily close above 0.65 first to consider any bullish positions.
Strategy:
Pause
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral USDCAD
The Canadian dollar finally found some support overnight, after free-falling since Tuesday, and it had nothing to do with any domestic reasons.
Canadian dollar direction, like the rest of the G-10 majors, continues to be dictated by broad U.S.-dollar sentiment. That sentiment shows a preference to buy greenbacks.
Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy meeting was a non-event for FX traders, as G-7 central bank monetary policy initiatives are well-coordinated. The BoC cut rates three times in March which removed the impetus for any rate action.
Positions:
There was only a small adjustment in CAD speculative positions this week. Speculators added 1K of fresh long positions and 313 of fresh short positions. They were 23.7K net short, which was only slightly changed from 24.4K in the previous week.
Strategy:
Pause
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