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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest tanıtım videosu and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday tanıtım filmi çekimi and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging tanıtım filmi long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD:Flat
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bearish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bullish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Becoming oversold and bottoming
The trade war saga continues, with an ominous development on Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump made good on his threat to raise tariffs on some $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%. Trump announced the move on Sunday and global equity markets have been in flux the entire week, as risk appetite has waned.
EUR/USD is slightly higher in Friday trade. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1212, up 0.12% on the day.
Positions:
Speculators made only a minor adjustments to their positions. They covered 1.1K long positions and only 627 short positions. They were 106K net shrt, which is considered an extreme level. Share of open interest is also high ( 50.1% ). The same outlook remains valid: Expect this market to bottom and reverse to the upside fairly soon
Strategy:
The bottom is likely to carve soon. Build up long term long positions.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Becoming bullish GBPUSD long term
UK Prime Minister Theresa May instigated the talks with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, in the hope they would breakthrough the Brexit standoff, which has threatened on more than one occasion to destabilise sterling’s value.
Sterling dipped sharply as investors sold off their GBP positions, before seeing a recovery back to the current levels following Friday’s positive UK GDP data.
Positions:
It was a 2nd consecutive week with speculators cutting/covering their positions on both sides. This week they covered 6.3K long positions and 4.1K short positions. They were 7K net short, which was down from being 922 net long three weeks ago. It seems like the sentiment shifted from long back to short, at least in the short term. Net positions are still above 33 weeks moving average and the market should be considered bullish in the long term. Any dips to the downside could be a great opportunity to build up long term long positions.
Strategy:
Expect short term downside in GBPUSD but long term long positions are preferable.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The Dollar/Yen rallied on Friday as Treasury yields rose and demand for risk increased amid optimism over U.S.-China relations. Although a trade deal between the two economic powerhouses wasn’t reached, the price action suggests investors felt there was still hope for a trade agreement.
According to Bloomberg News, the U.S. told China it had three to four weeks to come to an agreement or the White House would enact more tariffs.
Positions:
Speculators, despite a drastic drop in price in USDJPY added fresh 5.2K long positions and covered 2.6K short positions. They were 91K net short, which was slightly lower from AN EXTREME level of 99K in the previous week.
Strategy – no change:
Still biased towards the downside here.
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Mixed/Bearish AUDUSD
An overnight report showed the RBA has downgraded its economic forecasts for GDP and underlying inflation this year. It also showed central bank policymakers see slower progress in lowering unemployment.
The report went on to show that the RBA still sees underlying inflation moving back to 2% by the end of 2020 despite an expectation that unemployment will hardly decline and wage growth will remain low over the same period.
Positions:
Only small adjustments in AUD market. Speculators added fresh 1.7K longs and covered 185 short positions. They were 57K net short, which was changed from being 59K in the previous week. AUDUSD remains a sell on rallies as net positions trade below 33 weeks moving average.
Strategy:
Sell Aud on rallies towards local resistance.
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The January and February job gains were solid as Canadian added 122,700 during those two months. The March results saw some payback with a loss of 7,200 jobs recorded. Analysts are forecasting that today’s results will show a gain of 10,000 jobs in April. If so, the report will be quickly forgotten as it won’t change the interest rate outlook, in either direction.
Positions:
There was no adjustments in CAD futures this week. Speculators added 672 new long positions and only 42 new short positions. They were 46K net short, unchanged from the previous week.
Strategy:
Buy USDCAD on dips in the short term.
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