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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Neutral
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Neutral
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The ECB kept rates on hold, as expected. The central bank also added a few new liquidity measures, however, it failed to expand its bond-buying programme as analysts expected. The ECB have decided to pause and take stock after 6 weeks of intense central bank action.
Safe Haven Dollar Higher On Fears Of Renewed Trade War
The US Dollar is trading broadly higher versus its peers on Friday as investors seek out its safe haven properties. Warnings from US tech stocks Apple and Amazon in the previous session, in addition to threats from President Trump are weighing on sentiment.
Positions:
Speculators were bearish this week. They covered 3.1K of their long positions and, at the same time they added 4.4K fresh short positions. This bumped them down to be 79.6K net long, which was less from 87K in the previous week. The price of EURUSD topped the week at 1.0980 after climbing to 3 weeks high. This rally might continue if this week’s positions are not a beginning of a bearish trend. Long term bullish sentiment is intact as per this week’s analysis.
Strategy:
Buy EURUSD on dips.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
The British pound has pulled back significantly from the 1.26 level. The market then reached down towards the 1.25 handle, an area that looks as a bit of a fulcrum for price. At this point, the 50 day EMA is currently sitting at the 1.25 handle, and it could offer a bit of support. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to chop around and show signs of volatility. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is doing what it can to inject liquidity into the markets which should break down the value of the US dollar. That being said though, Great Britain has a lot of issues when it comes to opening up the economy, and of course anything involving growth is unlikely that happen anytime soon.
Positions:
Speculators added 1.9K of new long positions. It was the first time in 6 week when smart money actually bought GBP futures. Unfortunately this is not a sign of bullishness as they also added 7.2K new short positions to their portfolios.They were 6.6K net short, which was massively up from being 1.3K net short in the previous week. This is the 2nd consecutive week with speculators being on the bearish side of the market. I would expect GBPUSD to fall lower from the current levels. The recent rally is a perfect opportunity to establish some short positions in this market.
Strategy:
Sell GBPUSD on rallies
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
USD/JPY drops to 106.58, down 0.10% on a day, ahead of the Tokyo open on Thursday. Even so, the pair stays near the lowest since March 17 while waiting for Japan open after Wednesday’s Showa Day bank holiday.
Risk-on sentiment questions bear despite broad US dollar weakness…
Despite flashing the six-day losing streak on Wednesday, the yen pair failed to cheer the broad US dollar weakness as antipodeans did. The reason could be traced from the Japanese currency’s safe-haven allure as well as off in Japan.
Positions:
Speculators were bullish this week ( for a change! ) They added 6.2k of new long positions and left their shorts unchanged ( covered only 68 contracts ). They were 32K net long, which was significantly up from being 26K in the previous week. I expect USDJPY to keep trending down in the next few weeks.
Strategy:
Sell USDJPY on rallies
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral AUDUSD
AUD/USD has been extending its uptrend as Australia is winning against coronavirus. The RBA decision, US Non-Farm Payrolls, and the next steps regarding lockdowns are eyed. Early May’s daily chart is showing an uptrend channel.
The FX Poll points to falls in the medium and long-terms. The Aussie has continued flying like a rugby ball – as the league is preparing to return. Apart from Australia’s gains against the virus, it enjoyed the most upbeat market mood. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision and quarterly report, the Non-Farm Payrolls buildup, and defeating the disease is in the spotlight.
Positions:
This week speculators added only 284 long positions and 3.2K short positions to their portfolio. They were 37.7K net short, which was up from 34.8K in the previous week. The price action has been trading upwards but the speculative positions are not clear enough to say which way it will eventually move. My bias is to the downside first before a large move up.
Strategy:
Pause
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral USDCAD
USD/CAD is rebounding following the unsuccessful attempt to break through the support level at 1.3850.
Today, the trading in the world markets is heavily influenced by the U.S. threat to put more tariffs on China due to the latter’s failure to contain coronavirus and provide timely information on the disease.
Despite the sell-off in the world markets, the U.S. dollar remained mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies, and the U.S. Dollar Index settled below 99. Oil was mixed and did not provide additional support for the Canadian dollar.
The U.S. released ISM Manufacturing PMI for April which came at 41.5 compared to analyst consensus of 36.9. The Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI for April was 33. Both reports are not surprising as coronavirus containment measures put huge pressure on every country where they were implemented.
Positions:
Speculators were clearly bearish this week. They covered 3.7K of their long positions and added a fresh 1.3K of shorts. They were 29K net short, which was up from being 24K net short in the previous week. This scenario would suggest some movement to the downside in USDCAD in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Pause
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