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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bearish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Neutral
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Neutral
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The Euro fell during the week, reaching all the way down towards the 1.0750 level. The market did bounce on Thursday, and Friday it was struggling for direction. At this point, the market is likely to see more continuation of the consolidation, as there is nowhere to be right now. This makes sense, because the ECB and the Federal Reserve has traded back and forth the idea of blowing up their own currencies. Right now, there is a flood of headlines that continue to throw the market around, and the Euro/US dollar pair is a perfect example of what has been going on around the world.
Positions:
Speculators were bearish for another week. This time they added 5.4K new short positions and 2K long positions to their portfolios. They were 76.3K net long, which was less from 79.6K in the previous week. The price action is declining and speculators are clearly on the sell side of the market. I would expect the current downtrend in EURUSD to continue in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Sell EURUSD on rallies
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
The British pound has initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday but found enough selling pressure above the turn things back around and form a rather ugly candlestick. After all, the Bank of England failing to add more stimulus may have been short-term bullish, but they also kept the door open for more stimulus in June as needed. In fact, it is almost a given at this point so the British pound will more than likely continue to grind much lower over the longer term, and I believe at this point short-term rallies are to be sold into as we are more than likely going to go looking towards 1.22 handle underneath, which then leads to a much bigger move down to the 1.20 level.
Positions:
Speculators are also bearish in GBP futures this week. They added 2K of fresh short positions and covered 3.4K of their long positions. They were 12K net short, which was significantly higher from being 6.6K in the previous week. This week’s net positions are the highest since they became net short ( 3 weeks ago ). The sell off is likely to continue in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Sell GBPUSD on rallies
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
Fundamentally, the US Initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 02, 2020 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a decline from 3839K to 3000K.
The actual result was slightly lower than the forecast as the US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 3169K. Besides, the last reading was revised to 3846K
The 4-week moving average was 4,173,500, a decrease of 861,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,750 from 5,033,250 to 5,035,000.
Overall, USD/JPY is approaching a few key hurdles near 107.00 and it might struggle to continue higher. Looking at EUR/USD and GBP/USD, both pairs started an upside correction.
Positions:
Speculators wcovered 3.3K of their long positions and added fresh 1.7K of shorts. They were 27.2K net long, which was down from being 32.3K in the previous week. The price action still points to the downside ( usdjpy ) but with speculators being less bullish, perhaps the bottom is near. My bias remains bearish until there are more signals otherwise.
Strategy – no change:
Sell USDJPY on rallies
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral AUDUSD
AUD/USD has slipped out of the uptrend channel that has accompanied it since mid-March, and momentum on the daily chart has softened, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports.
“The Aussie trades above the 50-day Simple Moving Average but below the 100 and 200-day ones.”
“Some support awaits at 0.6370, which cushioned AUD/USD in early May. It is followed by 0.6250, a support line from mid-April.”
“Resistance is at 0.6480, a high point in early May, followed by the post-crash peak of 0.6560.”
Positions:
Speculators were bullish this week. They added 1.8K new long positions and covered 2.5K of their shorts. This made them 33.5K net short, lower from 37.7K in the previous week. It’s still early to say but we might be seeing the beginning of an uptrend in the AUDUSD market.
Strategy:
Pause
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Neutral USDCAD
USD/CAD continues to trend down as oil shows strength and the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.
The better-than-expected U.S. Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports have initially provided support to the American currency, but the U.S. Dollar Index failed to get above the 100 level and declined closer to 99.5.
The reports showed that job losses were smaller than previously expected, although the U.S. economy still lost as much as 20.5 million jobs and the Unemployment Rate skyrocketed to 14.7% as virus containment measures dealt a heavy blow to many industries.
However, the market got accustomed to worse-than-expected reports so the news was considered as a positive catalyst and led to increased buying of riskier assets like the Canadian dollar.
Positions:
Speculators were clearly bearish this week again. They added only 975 of long positions and almost 4K of short positions. They were 32K net short, which was changed from 29K in the previous week. There is no strategy for now but my bias would be to the downside from here.
Strategy:
Pause
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