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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bottoming
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bearish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bullish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Becoming oversold and bottoming
EUR/USD has been consolidating its gains after US inflation beat expectations. Concerns about trade are weighing on sentiment. Friday’s four-hour chart is mixed for EUR/USD. What happens when the data contradicts the central banker’s word? Confusion and choppy price action. US Core Consumer Price Index has accelerated to 2.1% in June – above 2.0% expected
Positions:
This week speculators were rather on the bearish side. They added fresh 5.4K short positions and only 1.2 long positions. This sentiment, however needs to be assessed together with the previous week. Two week ago, speculators covered 26K of their short positions and another 21K 4 weeks ago. In total, speculators covered 65K of their short positions in the last 9 weeks.
This is a serious signal that the smart money does not like to be EUR short anymore. Worth noticing that speculators added only 5.7K new long positions during the last 9 weeks.
It would be good to see new longs coming in the report in the next few weeks.
This would definitely put more upwards pressure on EURUSD.
Nevertheless- speculative positions trade above 33 weeks moving average, following historical low. This is enough to be bullish in EURUSD in the long term.
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
The Cable jumped on Friday, rising to 1.253 ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s second testimony later on this afternoon. The US dollar broadly softened following Friday’s testimony from Chairman Powell, who appeared to confirm that US interest rate cuts are on the way.
Positions:
This week speculators continued to be GBP bearish. They added another 11K new shorts and only 2.5K new long positions. This was the 4th consecutive week with speculators adding new shorts. In total they opened 30K fresh shorts in the last 4 weeks.They were 72K net short, which is close to the historic low ( 79K ) back in September 2018. I expect some more downside to play out but in the long term this market might be beginning to show reversal signals.
Strategy:
As expected, the price has been moving lower. More downside ahead.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair has closed Friday at weekly lows around 107.90, as speculative interest got read of its dollar’s despite some signs that should have sent the Yen lower. Wall Street resumed its advance, with the three major indexes reaching fresh all-time highs on the back of speculation the Fed will provide the markets with monetary stimulus. Demand for government debt eased, with US Treasury yields ending the week with substantial gains.g. Regarding yields, the US 10-year fell from 2.06% to 2.02%, adding more strength to the yen.
Positions:
Speculators added 1.1K new longs and 3.5K new shorts this week.
This was the first week in 11 with the smart money adding any JPY shorts. They were 3.6K newt short, which is very close to be net long. The last time speculators were net JPY long – June 2018, the 0 line was rejected and the market started to sell JPY, pushing USDJPY higher. Let see how this plays out this time around
Strategy – no change:
No strategy for now.
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bearish AUDUSD
AUD/USD reversed directions last week, posting moderate gains. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Chinese GDP and Australian job numbers. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Australia posted weak confidence numbers last week, but the Aussie shrugged off the soft numbers. The NAB Business Confidence index slowed to 2 in June, down from 7 a month earlier. There was no relief from Westpac Consumer Sentiment, which plunged 4.1%, marking a 4-month low.
Positions:
Speculators took profit this week. They covered 3K of their long positions and 7.7K of their shorts. They were 54K net short, which was less from being 58K net short in the previous week.
With the price action pushing up and speculative positions close to the historical low, I see a potential for a reversal in AUDUSD
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar rose on Friday and on a weekly basis gained 0.40 percent versus the dollar. The loonie is trading at 1.3026 despite the Bank of Canada (BoC) holding the Canadian benchmark untouched and injecting a maple dose of dovish rhetoric into the market. In a battle of dovish central banks, the Fed took the lead by already signalling an upcoming rate cut since its last meeting in June. The testimonies of Fed Chair Powell and other high-profile members, as well as the publication of the minutes from said FOMC June meeting has the market fully pricing in the Fed lowering the interest rate at the end of the month.
Positions:
Speculators added 3.6K new longs and left their short unchanged. They were 9.2K net short, up from 6.2K in the previous week. Lower prices in USDCAD should prevail in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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