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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down tanıtım filmi each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release tanıtım filmi çekimi date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, tanıtım videosu and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Flat
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
In spite of occasional bullish attempts, which are mostly expected to come in from the USD-side, EUR is seen under increasing pressure in the upcoming weeks as market participants keep assessing the potential easing measures from the ECB as well as the unremitting deceleration in the region.
We expect the ECB to strike a more dovish policy tone and back it up by delivering a 0.20 point rate cut…In these circumstances, we judge that the balance of risks for the euro is skewed to the downside.
The close proximity of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month could act as dampener on downside potential though.
Positions:
Speculators despite a dowish market expectations, were bullish this week. They added 12K fresh long positions and 7.5K new short positions to their portfolios.
They were 31K net short, down from being 35K in the previous week. The same, long term bullish bias remains intact in this market.
Speculative positions trade above 33 weeks moving average and as long as this is the case, the long term long positions should be considered.
Don’t forget the fact that speculative positions reached historical levels few weeks ago and are now recovering from this extreme. Both facts are enough to treat EURUSD as bullish long term.
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
Unsurprisingly Brexit uncertainty played a major role in the Pound’s collapse in the first half of the week, with Sterling sentiment souring amidst a sharp rise in no-deal Brexit fears.
This came as a result of comments from Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt in which both candidates to replace Theresa May as Prime Minister outlined their opposition to any Brexit deal with the EU which includes the Irish backstop.
With the EU frequently stating that the backstop must be included in any withdrawal agreement, this was seen as putting the UK on the path to a no-deal Brexit
Looking to the week ahead, the Cable is expected to remain volatile as political uncertainty in the UK remains heighted as the Tory leadership contest finally reaches a conclusion.
Positions:
This week we see even more bearishness from the Speculators. They covered 1K of their long positions and added 2.3K new short positions.
They were 76K net short ( up from 72K in the previous week ). The net positions are getting extreme but have a potential to reach 100K.
The last time the speculators were 100K net short ( April 2017 ), GBPUSD shot up from 1.24 to 1.43 in the space of 1 year. It was a typical bull market giving us many opportunities to make money.
Currently I expect some more downside to play out. 1.20 could be reached in the next 1-3 months but from there we will most likely see a longer term bull market in GBPUSD.
Strategy:
As expected, the price has been moving lower. More downside ahead.Watch 1.20
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The USD/JPY was trading near 108.00 by the end of the week on renewed demand for the greenback but retreated sharply from the level to settle at around 107.70.
The late decline was a combination of plummeting US indexes, sharply down on Friday on diminishing hopes for aggressive US rate cuts, and mounting risk aversion on news that Iran seized a UK oil tanker, reportedly being on international waters.
Furthermore, US Treasury yields ended the week with losses with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note settling at 2.05%, weighing on the pair
Positions:
This week speculators added 5.2K new short positions and covered 2.4K of their longs. This is a clear JPY short bias. Speculators were 11K net short, up from being only 3.6K net short in the previous week.
The 0 line has been rejected. Speculators didn’t become NET long in JPY futures and now are adding short positions to their portfolios.
If this bias continues, we might see USDJPY climbing up in the coming weeks. This is not confirmed yet. I would like to see how this progresses in the next few weeks.
Strategy – no change:
No strategy for now.
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
China’s economy grew 6.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, which matched the forecast.
This reading was down from the 6.4% growth rate recorded in the previous two quarters.
The ongoing tariff war with the United States has taken a toll on the second-largest economy in the world, which was posting growth of close to 7.0% just one year ago.
The RBA minutes didn’t shake up the Aussie, as rate-setters said that rate policy would be adjusted ‘as needed’ to support growth.
Positions:
No much change in AUD market. The speculators left their longs unchanged and covered another 1.4K of their short positions.
This was the 7th week of short covering. In total, speculators covered 21K of their short AUD positions.
Given the fact that speculative positions bottomed out 2-3 weeks go and the price action is clearly pushing up, I see this as a beginning of a large bull market in AUDUSD.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar has been stuck inside a $1.3010-$1.3090 range for the past week and even yesterday’s Canadian inflation report didn’t garner much price activity.
June Consumer Price Index came in close to expectations but remained at the Bank of Canada’s target range.
The news should have kept the focus on Canadian dollar upside as it supports the view that the Bank of Canada need not hurry to adjust monetary policy from its current neutral stance.
Positions:
Speculators added a whooping 14.3K of new long positions and only 2.6K of short positions. They were 21K net short, which was sharply up from 9K in the previous week.
With speculators becoming firmly net long in CAD futures, we can expect more downside in USDCAD market in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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