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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each drone çekimi Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and kurumsal tanıtım filmi includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging drone çekimleri long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bullish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at their meeting yesterday but sent a clear message of their intentions to ease policy at a later date.
The markets had been pricing in about a 50% chance of a cut yesterday. Although the message from yesterday’s meeting was dovish, the fact that the central bank did not act caused a mixed reaction in EUR/USD.
The currency pair briefly spiked to its lowest level this year, however, it doesn’t look like much of a stop run took place. The decline was brief and the reversal that followed took the pair to above levels ahead of the rate announcement until eventually, sellers stepped in at 1.1188 resistance.
Positions:
Speculators changed the tone a bit this week. They added 3K of new long positions and 10.6K of new short positions. This adjustment made them 39K net short, which was up from 31K in the previous week.
Despite more short positions added this week, the same, long term bullish bias remains intact in this market.
My analysis from the previous week stands valid:
Speculative positions trade above 33 weeks moving average and as long as this is the case, long term long positions should be considered.
Don’t forget the fact that speculative positions reach historical levels few weeks ago and now are recovering from this extreme. Both mentioned facts are enough to treat EURUSD as bullish long term.
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions. The current decline is an opportunity to buy
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
The Cable was badly beaten and the UK currency was forced to give up some its recent gains on Thursday.
This came after senior EU officials made it clear that Boris Johnson’s plans drop the Irish backstop from the withdrawal deal was a non-starter.
The EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said:
‘PM Johnson has stated that if an agreement is to be reached it goes by way of eliminating the backstop. This is of course unacceptable and not within the mandate of the European council.’
This leaves the Pound on the back foot this morning as the EU’s refusal to budge and Johnson’s commitment to leave in October ‘no ifs, no buts’ stokes concerns that the UK will face a no-deal Brexit.
Positions:
Speculators took profits this week. They covered ( closed ) 3.2K of their long positions and 1K of their shorts. They were 78K net short, which was more from 76K in the previous week.
Currently I expect some more downside to play out. 1.20 could be reached in the next 1-3 months but from there we will most likely see a longer term bull market in GBPUSD.
Strategy:
As expected, the price has been moving lower. More downside ahead.Watch 1.20
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
Geopolitical tensions were of interest but remained contained. Drone incidents in the Persian Gulf and North Korean missile tests were dismissed by the US which seems unwilling to enter a full confrontation with both regimes.
In Japan, the Tokyo inflation figures marginally beat expectations with ex-fresh food prices registering an annual increase of 0.9%. Nevertheless, core inflation remains far from the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
Positions:
There were only small adjustments on JPY market this week. Speculators added fresh 1.7K of their long positions and covered only 266 shorts.
They were 9.3K net short – less from 11.3K in the previous week. The same bias remains. Such small adjustments should not have any major impact on prices.
In a scenario like that – follow the price action on smaller time frames
Strategy – no change:
No strategy for now.
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
The Australian Dollar fell close to two percent in the week ending Friday but could be set for further declines over the coming days, according to analysts at Commerzbank and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).
Australia’s Dollar retreated this week after failing to overcome a key technical level last Friday, and as the greenback rebounded from earlier lows in response to data suggesting the U.S. economy is not quite as sickly as some in the market had come to believe.
Positions:
Speculators took profits this week. They covered 2.3K of their longs and 7K of their shorts. They were 47K net short ( down from 52K a week before ).
Despite a rather sharp decline in the price of AUDUSD, COT metrics suggest the speculators are setting up for higher prices to come. They were least bearish since April and they covered a lot of shorts in the last 5 weeks.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar broke out of its five-week trading range overnight, and the move was all due to external influences. USD/CAD price movements failed at the bottom and the top of its $1.3015-$1.3160 range since June 25. That changed overnight. The Canadian dollar plunged through support (USD/CAD resistance at 1.3160) due to widespread demand for U.S. dollars.
The Canadian dollar weakened alongside the Antipodean currencies in Asia. AUD/USD and NZD/USD were still feeling the pain from the outlook for lower domestic rates in both countries. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe opined about the need for lower interest rates to bolster wage growth on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on record for saying they need lower interest rates.
Interestingly, the Bank of Canada doesn’t need lower interest rates. At least for the time being, yet the Canadian dollar was lumped in with the rest of the dovish central bank currencies. Canadian dollar selling may be a knee-jerk reaction to broad U.S. dollar moves in the absence of actionable, tier-one Canadian economic data. That will continue to be the case until next Wednesday’s Canadian Gross Domestic Product report.
Positions:
This week speculators were bullish CAD futures. They added another 6.6K fresh long positions ( this is after they added 14K in the previous week) and, at the same time, they covered 3.2K of their short positions.
They were 30.7K net long, which was up from being 20K in the previous week. This is4th consecutive week with speculators being net long. I expect more downside in USDCAD market in the long term
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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