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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The EUR/USD pair is closing the week with modest gains above the 1.1100 level, in a week were revamped old news took center stage. Fears of recession, central banks announcing more stimulus, trade tensions, and Brexit have been in a roller-coaster these last few days, leaving investors clueless and major pairs within familiar levels. The EUR/USD pair, however, fell to a fresh 3-week low of 1.1051 on Friday, bouncing from such low after US Federal Reserve Chief, Jerome Powell, spoke within the Jackson Hole Symposium.
In his prepared remarks, Powell dropped the “mid-cycle” reference to rate cuts which generated some turmoil earlier in the week. Once again, he said that the US economy is in a good place, adding that policymakers will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion
Positions:
Speculators dumped another 7.4K of their short positions this week. This is the 3rd consecutive week with the smart money abandoning short side of the trade. In total they covered 15K short contracts. At the same time they added fresh 1.2K long positions this week, which equates to a clear bullish outlook in EUR futures.
Net positions were at 38K, significantly less than 47K in the previous week.
The price action clearly suggests a double bottom and the timing couldn’t be better. If the current sentiment continues, September should bring sizable rallies in EURUSD market.
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions. The current decline is an opportunity to buy
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
GBPUSD rallies to a fresh monthly-high (1.2273) as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets with French President Emmanuel Macron as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel to renegotiate the Brexit deal, but it remains to be seen if a compromise will be reached with less than 70 days until the October 31 deadline.
The lingering threat of a no-deal Brexit may become a growing concern for the Bank of England (BoE) as the central bank has 1 meeting left before the UK departs the European Union (EU), and the central bank may come under pressure to alter the forward guidance at the next interest rate decision on September 19 as “increased uncertainty about the nature of EU withdrawal means that the economy could follow a wide range of paths over coming years.”
Positions:
Speculators left their long positions unchanged. They held exactly 33,405 long contracts. They also covered 3.4K of their short positions. They were 92K net short, which was slightly lower from 95K in the previous week. Net positions have been extreme for the last few weeks. The price reached anticipated support at 1.20 and rallied last week. It could be that this is the major bottom in GBPUSD market.
Strategy:
As expected, the price has been moving lower. More downside ahead.Watch 1.20
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The Dollar/Yen plunged on Friday on heavy flight-to safety buying in reaction to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields and a nosedive in demand for risky assets. Some of the reaction was caused by the dovish tone of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming central bankers’ seminar on Friday morning. Most of the move was triggered by President Trump’s ordering of U.S. companies to leave China, which investors feel may have driven the U.S. economy closer to recession.
Positions:
Yet another week with speculators dropping their shorts. This week they covered another 8.2K of short contracts.At the same time they also covered 1.8K of their long positions.They were 31K net long, up from being 24K in the previous week. The price action has been bearish but the current level is significant and could find some support. Bearish outlook remains valid but the downside could be limited
Strategy – no change:
No strategy for now.
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
AUDUSD: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR LOOKS RIPE FOR MAJOR TECHNICAL BREAK
AUDUSD has struggled to reclaim major technical confluence around the 0.68 price level
Australian Dollar downside could accelerate as US-China trade war uncertainty lingers
Find out if you possess the Top Traits of Successful Traders
Spot AUDUSD has sunk over 6% from its year-to-date high of 0.7295 printed back in January and selling pressure appears set to continue. The Australian Dollar has stumbled largely owing to US-China trade war fallout which is a theme that will likely continue for the foreseeable future. Also, broad-based US Dollarstrength driven by safe-haven demand amid slowing global GDP growth and flashing recession signals exacerbated downside in spot AUDUSD
Positions:
Speculators took profits off the table this week. They covered 4K of their long positions and 4K of their short positions. Their net positions were unchanged at 63K. I don’t see any change in the sentiment. The price should continue downwards in the short term but the bottom will be carved soon.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar is closing out the week a tad worse for wear, and it is due to factors beyond its control. The currency has been whipped about by lightning-quick shifts in global risk sentiment arising from Washington, Beijing and the U.K., alongside top-tier G-10 economic data.
The Canadian dollar and British pound were the only currencies to gain against the U.S. dollar overnight. The Australian dollar was unchanged and the rest lost ground. JPY and CF weakened as risk aversion fears eased.
Positions:
Another week, another profit taking in CAD Futures! This time speculators covered 2.7K longs and 1.5K shorts. They were 13K net long, which was only slightly changed from the previous week. I expect the current upside in USDCAD to run out of steam and the price to collapse soon.
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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