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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
EUR/USD traders who were on holiday for all of August would have returned to work today to find the single currency unchanged from where they left it on August 1. EUR/USD inched lower overnight and is trading at the session lows. There is a negative bias due to improved risk sentiment following the improved U.S./China trade talk tone. Concerns that the Eiuropean Central Bank will introduce new monetary policy stimulus in September will cap gains.
Positions:
There was no much change this week in the smart money positions. Speculators added new 5K of long positions and 5.8K of shorts. They were 38.8K net short, which was almost unchanged since the previous week. The price of EURUSD collapsed last week to fresh lows but the speculative positions suggest the bottom is nar and the smart money prefers to be on the long side. If they get caught remains to be seen.
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions. The current decline is an opportunity to buy
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
Sterling is down nearly 1% on the week after turning from downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart heading into September.
British Pound recovery fails at trend resistance- looking for possible exhaustion ahead of 1.2080
Sterling prices are softer this week after testing downtrend resistance on Tuesday and although the risk remains for a deeper drive from here, the bears aren’t quite in control just yet.
Positions:
Speculators added new 4.7K of long positions and 1.3K of short positions to their portfolios this week. They were 89K net short, which was down from being 92.4K in the previous week.Speculative net positions remain to be extreme and the current prices are very likely to be a long term bottom in GBPUSD
Strategy:
1.20 support is likely to hold. Expect the long term bottom to be carved around this level. Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The Dollar/Yen plunged on Friday on heavy flight-to safety buying in reaction to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields and a nosedive in demand for risky assets. Some of the reaction was caused by the dovish tone of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming central bankers’ seminar on Friday morning. Most of the move was triggered by President Trump’s ordering of U.S. companies to leave China, which investors feel may have driven the U.S. economy closer to recession.
Positions:
Speculators added 9.8K new longs and 7.3K new shorts this week. They were 33K net long, up from being 31K in the previous week. They have been net long for 4th consecutive week. The price of USDJPY found some support and bounced off the major level at 104.60. The current rally is likely to be corrective and more downside should prevail soon.
Strategy – no change:
Sell USDJPY on rallies
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
Asia FX markets were busy. Weaker than expected Building Permits data knocked NZD/USD lower in early trading, but prices recovered most of their losses in Toronto trading. AUD/USD had a similar experience. Soft Australia Building Permits data undermined the currency pair early, but it managed to recoup most of the losses by the start of trading in Toronto.
Positions:
Aussie was the only currency pair that speculators took profit this week. They covered 500 long positions and 2.2K short positions. They were 61K net short, which was almost unchanged since last week.Speculative positions are extreme and I still see the current price level as a bottom and a major bounce back up to come fairly soon.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar was largely ignored in overnight markets and is currently trading where it closed yesterday. Traders are looking ahead to today’s Canada Gross Domestic Product, Raw Materials and Industrial Price data. GDP is the most important. Q2 GDP is forecast to rise 3.0% q/q while June GDP is expected to rise 0.1%. Stronger-than-expected data will boost the currency. However, broad U.S. dollar demand and month-end portfolio re-balancing flows may limit Canadian dollar gains.
Positions:
Speculators added new 924 longs and 3K shorts this week. Nothing really changes since the last week. The current rally should be treated as an opportunity to sell USDCAD
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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