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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The Euro is trading steady to lower shortly before the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Traders expect the headline number to show the economy added about 158,000 jobs in August although some estimates are as high as 163,000. The unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 3.7%. Average Hourly Earnings are estimated to have risen 0.3%.
Positions:
This week speculators were rather bearish. They added 12.7K of new long positions, but at the same time they added 23K of new short positions to their portfolios. They were 49K net short, which was changed from 38K in the previous week. My bias still stands bullish as long as the net speculative positions trend above 33 weeks moving average.
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions. The current decline is an opportunity to buy
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
The week began with GBP/USD dropping to a low of 1.1958 – the lowest since 2016 –as fears of a no-deal Brexit grew.
Things changed when it became clear that the opposition finally came together against the moves of prime minister Boris Johnson. His senior advisor Dominic Cummings – which came up with the Leave campaign’s winning “Take back control” slogan – seems to have gone too far. The opposition teamed up with pro-Remain Conservative MPs and formed the so-called “rebel alliance.”
Positions:
Despite uncertain political situation in the UK, speculators remain bullish and the price action points to the upside. This week the smart money added 552 new long contracts but also covered 3.5K of their shorts. They were 84K net short, which was changed from 89K in the previous week. My bias, together with the speculators remains to the upside.
Strategy:
Expect the long term bottom to be carved around the current level. Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and trade representative Robert Lighthizer have spoken with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and agreed on meetings in October. The announcement about the conversation has ended speculation that only low-level talks were going on. Moreover, upbeat comments from Washington – and especially from Global Times’ Hu Xijin – lifted spirits. Xijin tends to hold a nationalistic line, and some consider him the mouthpiece of the regime. His surprisingly positive tones have boosted markets.
Positions:
Speculators covered 2.5K of their long positions and added fresh 3.3K of shorts. This is a clear change in the bullish sentiment. The price of USDJPY bounced off the important support and looks very bullish indeed. Perhaps the downside is now completed and the smart money is gearing up for an upside moe in this market. Lets see
Strategy – no change:
Pause
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
AUD/USD becomes another commodity-linked currency holding back its recent rises, amid doubts over the US-China trade optimism, as it makes the rounds to 0.6815 during early Friday morning in Asia.
On Thursday, the Aussie pair shrugged off lesser than expected July month trade balance data and a call for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) October rate cut from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ). The reason was statements from China’s Commerce Ministry showing renewed trade optimism between the US and the dragon nation signaling a negotiation round during October.
Positions:
Aussie also bottomed as expected. This week speculators added new 2.2K of long positions and only 525 of short positions. They were 59.3K net shorts, which was changed from 61K in the previous week. I treat the recent rally as a bottom and I expect AUDUSD to continue higher from here.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar rally stalled. Prices consolidated in a USD/CAD range of $1.3198-$1.3233 range overnight ahead of today’s employment reports from the U.S. and Canada. Statistics Canada noted a jump of 81,000 new jobs in August. Analysts forecast a 15,000-unit increase, a substantial improvement from July when Canada lost 24,200 jobs.
Even so, the Canadian jobs report may get lost in the frenzy of the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) results — which registered a disappointing hike of 130,000 jobs last month, a substantial deviation from the forecast increase of 158,000.
Better-than-expected U.S. NFP data will spark a renewed U.S. dollar rally, because it would have suggested the Federal Reserve could continue to assess the economy and delay cutting interest rates.
Positions:
Speculators left their long positions unchanged and added new 5.5K shorts. USDCAD dropped and itt is likely to continue lower from here
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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