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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bullish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
EUR/USD has traded in a range for most of the week and is holding below a 12-week declining trendline. The pair shows some resilience as dips in the pair have been short-lived.
Economic data out of Germany fell short of expectations last week but the release did not move the exchange rate much. Producer price index figures declined by half a percent in the month to August while analysts had expected it to remain unchanged.
Positions:
There was a big shift in speculative positions this week. Speculators covered 16.2K of their long positions and, at the same time added 2.4K new short positions. This shifted speculators to be 68K net short, which was a drastically higher from 49K in the previous week. Speculative positions also dropped below 33 weeks moving average, which is a fairly bearish signal. I would like to wait another week and see if this sentiment sticks before shifting my bias to bearish.
Strategy:
Pause
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
GBP/USD has been in a clear uptrend over the course of September this far, with the price continuing to create higher highs and higher lows.
The pullback seen on Wednesday looks to be another retracement and higher low. With that in mind, further upside is expected from here, with a break below $1.2393 required to bring about a more bearish outlook.
Positions:
Speculators took a lot of profit this week. They covered 16.5K of their long positions and 22.6K of their short positions. They were 86K net short, which was changed from 92K in the previous week. GBP futures remains extreme and my bullish bias also remains unchanged
Strategy:
Same – Expect the long term bottom to be carved around the current level. Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The Bank of Japan left its interest rates unchanged less than 12 hours after the Fed made its move. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda seemed hesitant about further monetary stimulus but pledged to battle low inflation. The BOJ has limited tools as the interest rate is negative, and the bank’s bond-buying scheme is massive. The Tokyo-based institution’s reluctance to act while other major central banks are stimulating strengthens the yen.
Positions:
Speculators were barish JPY futures this week. They covered 5.7K of their longs and added 2.9K fresh short positions. Speculators were 23K net long, which was changed from 32K in the previous week.This, short JPY sentiment will support higher prices in USDJPY in the coming weeks.
Strategy – no change:
Buy USDJPY on dips
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
AUD/USD sold off overnight with the price finally breaking back below the $0.6831-$0.6822 support zone.
With that out the way, there is a good chance we will see further downside to come before long. With the price currently looking like it could form a bullish engulfing, short-term gains look a distinct possibility. However, that historical zone of support turns into resistance, meaning that we could falter around $0.6822 for another leg lower?
Positions:
Speculators took profits also in AUD market. This week they covered 2.4K of their long positions and 15.3K of their shorts. They were 40K net short, which was lower from 53K in the previous week. Despite a sharp drop in AUDUSD last week, smart money remains to stay on the long side of the market
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar is unable to sustain rallies or losses beyond and entrenched USD/CAD range of $1.3140-$1.3440 for over two months. It is not alone. The G-10 major currencies have been mostly rangebound during the same period due to uncertainties around global trade growth and central bank monetary policies.
This week the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates, the Bank of Japan and Bank of England left rates unchanged while Norway’s Norges Bank raised rates by 0.25%. No matter what action was taken, the underlying theme in the central bank policy statements was “downside risks to their outlook from global trade tensions.”
Positions:
This week, speculators added another 7K of long positions and covered 1.2K of their shorts. They were 19K net long CAD futures. This is clear CAD bullish sentiment and we shall expect lower prices in USDCAD in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
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