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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Flat
GBPUSD: Bearish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bearish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Flat
The Euro has broken down to a fresh new lows during the week, reaching towards the 1.09 level. At this point, it looks very likely that we will continue to see a lot of trouble in this area, and it’s likely that traders will continue to look upon the Euro with skepticism as the EU seems to be going into quite a bit of economic trouble, perhaps even seeing a recession in Germany at this rate. If that does in fact happen, that would be a very negative turn of events for the Euro as Germany is such a huge part of the GDP of the European Union.
Positions:
After a significant shift in the positions last week, speculators took profits this week. They covered 3.5K of their long positions and 11.4K of their shorts. Overall, this is fairly bullish sentiment as they covered much more shorts but looking at the last 3 weeks, the sentiment is rather flat. With the price action reaching fresh lows last week, I would imagine EURUSD will find more sellers in the short term at least.
Strategy:
Pause
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bearish GBPUSD
GBPUSD fell against the dollar and euro on Friday after dovish comments by Michael Saunders, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. In published remarks of a speech to the Barnsley & Rotherham Chamber of Commerce & Institute of Chartered Accountants, Saunders said even if the U.K. can avoid a no-deal Brexit, uncertainties surrounding that “seem likely to continue to depress U.K. growth below potential for some time.” That will be especially true if global growth continues on a sluggish path, he said.
Positions:
Speculators were bullish despite the lower prices. This week they added 3.1K new long positions and covered 2.2K. They were 80K net short, which was less from 86K in the previous week. My bias is unchanged, I expect GBPUSD to rally from the current levels.
Strategy:
Same – Expect the long term bottom to be carved around the current level. Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bearish USDJPY
The USD/JPY accelerated the slide from daily highs and bottomed at 106.98, the lowest level since September 9. From the lows, it bounced and currently trades at 107.35. The move off lows took place after US President Trump announced he authorized the release tomorrow of the “complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript” of the phone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
Positions:
Speculators kept selling JPY Futures. This week they covered 5K of their long positions and added another 6K of short positions to their portfolios. They were 12K net long, which was down from being 23K in the previous week. I expect the upside to continue.
Strategy – no change:
Buy USDJPY on dips
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching from the 0.6750 level. That’s an area that has offered a significant amount of support, although we have broken through there previously. Quite frankly, I think this is essentially “fair value” in the market, and the Aussie continues to be very difficult to trade because of it. We simply are chopping back and forth as the US/China trade situation continues to drag on, and of course the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy. With the Chinese economy shrinking a bit, it means that there will be less demand for raw materials coming out of Australia. With that being the case, it’s likely that we will continue to see the Aussie sluggish at best.
Positions:
This week speculators loaded up on AUD Futures. They added 11.6K long positions and 18.7K of short positions to their portfolios. They were 47K net short, which was up from 40K in the previous week. Speculative net positions trade above 33 weeks moving average and my bias remains bullish in this market.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar traded slightly firmer in a narrow range overnight. The currency support came from small losses in the U.S. dollar against the G-10 majors, which were partly due to pre-weekend profit-taking. The greenback is higher across the board compared to Monday’s New York open, led by gains against the British pound. The Canadian and New Zealand dollars bucked the trend and posted small gains.
Positions:
There was a big shift in CAD positions this week. Speculators covered a whooping 21.6K of their long positions and 6.4K of their shorts. They were 4.5K net long, which was a significant change from 19K in the previous week. Interestingly, the price didn’t change that much during last week’s trading. I would like to see what speculators and the price do next week. We could see a large shift in this market ( to the upside in USDCAD )
Strategy:
Pause
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