[vc_row full_width=”stretch_row” css=”.vc_custom_1518384286912{background-color: #1e73be !important;}”][vc_column][vc_column_text]
The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_teacher” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_book_stack” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_market_research” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bullish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
EURUSD is trading at around 1.1165 at the start of the new week after rising 0.77% in the week before. Studies of the charts show the pair probably resuming its short-term uptrend after a brief pull-back.
The main drivers of the Euro in the week ahead are the EU’s official winter economic forecasts on Thursday, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers, and retail sales data out on Wednesday.
The EU’s previous official forecast for euro area GDP growth, released in the summer, estimated growth of 1.2% in 2019 – unchanged from the previous estimate – a slightly lower 1.4% in 2020.
Positions:
Speculators covered 2.1K of their long positions and added only 192 shorts. They were 53.3K net short, which was slightly higher from 51K in the previous week. Overall, net speculative positions are trending above 33 weeks moving average, which is a solid bullish signal. The price action closed weekly bar above 20 ema, which is an additional bullish signal. I can see this market taking off to the upside in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Buy EURUSD on dips
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bullish GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair extended its weekly advance up to 1.2975, as the greenback remained weak post-Fed, while news related to the upcoming UK election on December 12. The latest polls released Thursday show that Conservatives are getting growing support, with those favouring Tories up to 36.1%. Support for the opposition Labour party, on the other hand, has been decreasing, currently around 25%. Voting intentions are not granting Tories´ will won but indeed point to Johnson’s victory, somehow supporting his version of the Brexit deal. The market seems to like the news, now that the menace of leaving with or without a deal is gone.
Positions:
Bullish sentiment continues in GBP futures. This week, speculators added another 7.4K longs and covered 12.6K of their shorts. They were 32.4K net short, which was MUCH less compared to 52K in the previous week and 73K 2 weeks ago. Speculative positions are now touching 33 weeks moving average, after bottoming 2 months ago. This market is ripe for a massive uptrend.
Strategy:
Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDJPY
Post-Federal Reserve (Fed) dollar weakness continues, as the USD/JPY price retreats once again from ¥109.00. This may see a retracement towards ¥107.60, which would still leave the price in a strong uptrend from the August lows.
Intraday support has been found around ¥108.30 over the past two weeks, so if this holds a rebound could develop.
Positions:
Speculators took profits again. They covered 2.3K of their long positions and 838 of their short positions. They were 19.6K net long, which was up from 18.1K in the previous week. Short sentiment is likely to continue.
Strategy – no change:
Buy USDJPY on dips
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
Upbeat Chinese manufacturing PMI helped regain traction on Friday. Renewed US-China trade jitters might keep a lid on any strong gains. Friday’s key focus will remain on the US monthly jobs report – NFP. The AUD/USD pair regained some positive traction on the last day of the week, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum further beyond the 0.6900 handle.
Following the previous session’s intraday pullback from over three-month tops, the pair managed to attract some buying interest during the Asian session on Friday following the release of better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data. In fact, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7 for October as compared to an expected fall to 51.00 from the previous month’s reading of 51.4 and provided a modest lift to the China-proxy Australian Dollar.
Positions:
Speculators kept taking profits off the table. It has been 3rd consecutive week with smart money shaving their positions on both sides of the market.
This week they covered 1.3K of their longs and 5K of their short positions. This is clearly bullish sentiment and the price action is likely to continue higher as we have been anticipating.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar is trading in Toronto right where it closed on Thursday, after trading without conviction overnight. The Canadian dollar drifted higher alongside its antipodean counterparts when Caixin China Manufacturing PMI data came out at 51.7, compared to 51.5 in September. It was the highest level in two years. However, the gains were not sustained, and prices retreated during the European session.
Positions:
Smart monday keeps buying CAD futures. This week they added another 10.5K of fresh long positions and only 376 of short positions. They were 43K net long, which was up from being 33.4K in the previous week. Downtrending price action confirms long sentiment in USDCAD market. Expect more downside
Strategy:
Sell USDCAD on rallies
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
TRY OUR POPULAR COURSES & STRATEGIES
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”mulled_wine” border_width=”4″][stm_testimonials testimonials_text_color=”#000000″ testimonials_slides_per_row=”2″ testimonials_title=”See what others think about Humbletraders” testimonials_max_num=”10″][vc_separator color=”mulled_wine” border_width=”4″][/vc_column][/vc_row]
