[vc_row full_width=”stretch_row” css=”.vc_custom_1518384286912{background-color: #1e73be !important;}”][vc_column][vc_column_text]
The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_teacher” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_book_stack” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][stm_icon_box icon=”fa-icon-stm_icon_market_research” icon_color=”#1e73be” box_text_color=”#000000″]
For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bullish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
The EUR/USD pair is closing a second consecutive week with gains at around 1.1070, retreating from a high at 1.1109. A scarce macroeconomic calendar kept the pair in a dull range during the first half of the week, also the wait and see stance ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday. One done, one to go, as the US Federal Reserve will be announcing its decision on monetary policy next Wednesday, September 18.
Positions:
EURUSD recovered as expected. The pair traded strong this week and the current rally might continue. This week speculators took profits from EUR Futures. They covered 5.6K of their long positions and 4.9K of their short positions.. They were 49.8K net short, almost unchanged since the previous week. Expect more significant upside in EURUSD
Strategy:
Build up long term long positions. The current decline is an opportunity to buy.
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bullish GBPUSD
The Pound rally versus the Dollar paused for much of last week, but then continued to extend on Friday. This puts GBPUSD in position to challenge the underside of the trendline running up from the October 2016 flash-crash that also happens to connect with the January flash-crash low.
It could very well act as a formidable line of resistance, but the thinking is it will only be a minor speed bump on the way to higher levels.Looking beyond the 2016 trend-line, the focus will become placed on confluent resistance via the trendline off the 2018 high that runs over the March/May peaks and the declining 200-day MA
Positions:
Speculators flipped their positions this week. They were bearish and added 6.4K fresh short positions. Their longs were trimmed by only 792 contracts.
Speculators might be getting caught on the wrong side, the price action is clearly pointing to the upside and this is where it is likely to go. Speculative positions ( 92K this week ) are extreme and will mark the bottom in GBPUSD at some point soon. I my opinion, the reversal is already on the way.
Strategy:
Expect the long term bottom to be carved around the current level. Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDJPY
The positive news flow that started midway through last week has continued today. After U.S. President Trump tweeted that “at the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary on October 1st.” the proposed 5% tariff increase from 25% to 30% on U.S. $250bn of imports from China would be delayed from October 1 to October 15.
Positions:
Speculators covered 5.5K of their shorts and 643 of their long positions. They were 32K net long, which was up from being 28K in the previous week.The current upside is likely to continue
Strategy – no change:
Buy USDJPY on dips
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
The Australian Dollar is trading nearly flat on Friday after giving back most of its gains from the previous session despite dovish moves by the European Central Bank (ECB). Further, in another sign of just how over extended the Aussie may be, traders are showing a minimal response to this week’s positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations.
Positions:
Speculators were bullish for another week. This time they got aggressive. They covered 3.4K of their short positions and added fresh 2.9K longs to their portfolios. They were 53K net short, which was significantly changed from being 59K in the previous week. Net speculative positions are now trending back above 33 weeks moving average, which is a great bullish signal. There is more upside for AUDUSD in the coming weeks/months.
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian dollar was struggling to make gains below the USD/CAD level of $1.3130 and managed to cap losses at the USD/CAD level of 1.3230. FX markets were generally subdued overnight. The U.S. dollar was modestly softer against the major G-10 currencies when Toronto started trading this morning.
Positions:
This week, speculators added6.7K of new long positions and only 591 of short positions. They were 11.2K net long, which was up from being 5.3K in the previous week. This is fairly clear bullish sentiment from smart money. Despite USDCAD railing last week, I would expect the price to collapse again and resume downtrend.
Strategy:
Look out for short positions on rallies.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
TRY OUR POPULAR COURSES & STRATEGIES
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”mulled_wine” border_width=”4″][stm_testimonials testimonials_text_color=”#000000″ testimonials_slides_per_row=”2″ testimonials_title=”See what others think about Humbletraders” testimonials_max_num=”10″][vc_separator color=”mulled_wine” border_width=”4″][/vc_column][/vc_row]
