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The Weekly Commitments of Traders Report
Know what the “smart money” is up to
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For most recent reports go to
Commitments of Traders
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To learn how to use C.O.T go to
Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide
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For more weekly C.O.T tracking go to
Commitments Of Traders Sheet
[/stm_icon_box][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row”][vc_column][vc_separator color=”sky” border_width=”7″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”10/12″][vc_column_text]The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
- Commercial Traders – Hedgers
- Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
- Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.
The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
NOTE:
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
C.O.T Positioning
EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bullish
USDCAD: Bearish
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish
There was disappointing news out of the U.S., as retail sales contracted in September. The headline reading declined by 0.3%, after a gain of 0.4% in the previous release. Core retail sales declined 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.2%. There was no relief from the manufacturing front, as Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 5.6 in October, compared to 12.0 points a month earlier.
Sentiment towards the euro remains weak, as the U.S. economy continues to outperform the eurozone. Soft global conditions have hampered the manufacturing sector in Germany and the rest of the bloc.
Positions:
Speculators took profit this week. They covered 7.8K of their long positions and 8K of their shorts. They were 75K net short, which was unchanged from the previous week. The bullish sentiment continues with the price action pushing to the upside. I expect this uptrend to continue in the coming weeks.
Strategy:
Pause
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bullish GBPUSD
Pound investors have been singularly focused on Brexit developments over the past week and heading into the weekend. The pound rallied over the past 5 days as investors grew increasingly more confident that at Brexit deal could be achieved between the UK and the EU. Sterling investors spent the week jumping from headline to headline attempting to gauge the likelihood of a new Brexit deal agreement.
The pound surged on Thursday to a 5-month high on the news that a Brexit deal had been achieved. However, the spike higher was short lived. The pound dropped sharply to US$1.2760 before lifting again above $1.28 as investors started to weigh up the probability of Boris Johnson being able to push the Brexit deal through Parliament. Boris Johnson needs a majority in the vote in Parliament.
Positions:
Speculators added 1.5K longs this week and covered further 2.3K of their shorts. This full swing bullish bias supports rising prices in GBPUSD. Speculators were 73K net short and pushing up from the extreme 90K reached a few weeks back. Expect more upside in this market.
Strategy:
Same – Expect the long term bottom to be carved around the current level. Buy GBPUSD on dips.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDJPY
As followed over the past two weeks, USD/JPY remains attractive for long-USD scenarios. This is supported by the fact that the pair remains so close to recently fresh two-month-highs even as the US Dollar dips down to fresh monthly lows.
Positions:
Speculators took profits this week. They covered 5K of their long positions and 2.1K of their shorts. They were 11K net long, which was slightly lower from 14K in the previous week. I expect more upside in USDJPY market in the coming weeks.
Strategy – no change:
Buy USDJPY on dips
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
Last week, the pair rallied to a higher trading zone 0.6826 – 0.6904. Thus, a close above the low end of the zone may push AUDUSD towards the high-end contingent on clearing the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in).
If the price breaks and remains above the above the neckline of the double top pattern located at 0.6894, this could lead AUDUSD towards 0.7082. That said, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart should be kept in focus.
In turn, any failure in closing above the low end of the zone could entice sellers to press AUDUSD towards 0.6744. Nevertheless, the daily support levels underlined on the chart should be watched closely.
Positions:
This week speculators took profits. They covered 3.5K long and 9K short positions. They were 46K net short, which was down from being 52K in the previous week. I expect more upside in the AUDUSD market
Strategy:
Look out for long positions on dips
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
The Canadian manufacturing sales data showed an increase of 0.8% ($57.6 billion) in August as opposed to the -1.3% results seen the previous month. US Retail Sales and its core component came in at -0.3% (versus 0.6% the previous month) and -0.1% (versus 0.2% the previous month). In addition, the Baker Hughes Oil Rigs Count went up to 713 from the previous count of 712. However, this has had very little impact on price action so far.
Positions:
There was not much change in the speculative positions this week. Speculators added 2.7K fresh long positions and 3.7K short positions. They were 5.3K net long, which was slightly lower from 6.3K in the previous week. I expect the current down move in USDCAD to continue
Strategy:
Sell USDCAD on rallies
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