Category: Commitments of Traders

Speculators were bullish for another week. This time they got aggressive. They covered 3.4K of their short positions and added fresh 2.9K longs to their portfolios. They were 53K net short, which was significantly changed from being 59K in the previous week. Net speculative positions are now trending back above 33 weeks moving average, which is a great bullish signal. There is more upside for AUDUSD in the coming weeks/months.

Despite uncertain political situation in the UK, speculators remain bullish and the price action points to the upside. This week the smart money added 552 new long contracts but also covered 3.5K of their shorts. They were 84K net short, which was changed from 89K in the previous week. My bias, together with the speculators remains to the upside.

There was no much change this week in the smart money positions. Speculators added new 5K of long positions and 5.8K of shorts. They were 38.8K net short, which was almost unchanged since the previous week. The price of EURUSD collapsed last week to fresh lows but the speculative positions suggest the bottom is nar and the smart money prefers to be on the long side. If they get caught remains to be seen.

Speculators dumped another 7.4K of their short positions this week. This is the 3rd consecutive week with the smart money abandoning short side of the trade. In total they covered 15K short contracts. At the same time they added fresh 1.2K long positions this week, which equates to a clear bullish outlook in EUR futures. Net positions were at 38K, significantly less than 47K in the previous week. The price action clearly suggests a double bottom and the timing couldn’t be better. If the current sentiment continues, September should bring sizable rallies in EURUSD market.

Speculators took profits this week. They covered 10.7K of their long positions and 8.1K of short positions. They were 46.6K net short, which was up from being 44K in the previous week.
The speculative net positions are still trading above 33 weeks moving average and the bias should remain to the upside despite lower prices in EURUSD. As long as this is the case, any dips should be treated as an opportunity to buy EURUSD.

Speculators took profits this week. They covered ( closed ) 3.2K of their long positions and 1K of their shorts. They were 78K net short, which was more from 76K in the previous week.
Currently I expect some more downside to play out. 1.20 could be reached in the next 1-3 months but from there we will most likely see a longer term bull market in GBPUSD.

No much change in AUD market. The speculators left their longs unchanged and covered another 1.4K of their short positions.
This was the 7th week of short covering. In total, speculators covered 21K of their short AUD positions.
Given the fact that speculative positions bottomed out 2-3 weeks go and the price action is clearly pushing up, I see this as a beginning of a large bull market in AUDUSD.

This week speculators were rather on the bearish side. They added fresh 5.4K short positions and only 1.2 long positions. This sentiment, however needs to be assessed together with the previous week. Two week ago, speculators covered 26K of their short positions and another 21K 4 weeks ago. In total, speculators covered 65K of their short positions in the last 9 weeks.

EUR Futures: Speculators made only a minor adjustments to their positions. They covered 1.1K long positions and only 627 short positions. They were 106K net shrt, which is considered an extreme level. Shar of open interest is also high ( 50.1% ). The same outlook remains valid: Expect this market to bottom and reverse to the upside fairly soon

Speculators buy GBP despite a negative sentiment around Brexit. This week they added 8.5K fresh long positions and 11K shorts. They were 1.8K net short, this is after being NET LONG in the previous week. Overall, speculators have been steadily buying GBP futures in the recent week. If the trend continues, they will be solid net long in 2-3 weeks. It will be time to load up on GBP longs.